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Happy Valley · 2022-09-14 · 20:46

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course A 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-09-14 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GOLD GOLD BABY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 2-3/4, with RAGING BLAZE second and CARRY THE DIAMOND third. The 2.9 favourite WINS ALL finished 9th.

Result

Official · 0.57.43
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 GOLD GOLD BABY TT 0.57.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 6.7 2-3/4
2 12 RAGING BLAZE TT A Badel · J Size 1 9.5 2-3/4
3 8 CARRY THE DIAMOND PC L Ferraris · R Gibson 11 15.0 4-1/2
4 6 DIAMOND SOARS H1/TT1 M F Poon · P F Yiu 12 27.0 4-3/4
5 10 DAY DAY RICH B/TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 7 5.7 5-1/4
6 1 GOODMANSHIP B/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte 9 19.0 5-3/4
7 4 THIS IS GUTS H/TT C L Chau · C H Yip 10 51.0 6-1/4
8 9 SUPER CLASS XB/B2 S De Sousa · A T Millard 2 12.0 7-1/4
9 5 WINS ALL TT Z Purton · W Y So 6 2.9 7-1/4
10 3 SHANGHAI POWER B K C Leung · Y S Tsui 4 7.9 8-3/4
11 2 HANDSOME VEGGIE H1 L Currie · D A Hayes 8 21.0 8-3/4
12 11 SIMPLE DOCTRINE B/XB H T Mo · C W Chang 5 56.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLD GOLD BABY2. RAGING BLAZE+2.75L3. CARRY THE DIAMOND+4.5L4. DIAMOND SOARS+4.75L5. DAY DAY RICH+5.25L6. GOODMANSHIP+5.75L7. THIS IS GUTS+6.25L8. SUPER CLASS+7.25L9. WINS ALL+7.25L10. SHANGHAI POWER+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick RAGING BLAZE (25.2%) finished 2nd — the winner GOLD GOLD BABY was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 RAGING BLAZE 25.2% 3.97 2
2 5 WINS ALL 16.9% 5.91 9
3 8 CARRY THE DIAMOND 9.9% 10.15 3
4 1 GOODMANSHIP 9.2% 10.82 6
5 7 GOLD GOLD BABY 8.7% 11.47 1
6 10 DAY DAY RICH 8.2% 12.19 5
7 3 SHANGHAI POWER 6.6% 15.07 10
8 2 HANDSOME VEGGIE 4.8% 20.70 11
9 9 SUPER CLASS 3.7% 26.86 8
10 4 THIS IS GUTS 2.5% 39.50 7
11 11 SIMPLE DOCTRINE 2.1% 46.82 12
12 6 DIAMOND SOARS 2.0% 49.35 4
RAGING BLAZEWINS ALLCARRY THE DIAMONDGOODMANSHIPGOLD GOLD BABY — wonDAY DAY RICHSHANGHAI POWERHANDSOME VEGGIESUPER CLASSTHIS IS GUTSSIMPLE DOCTRINEDIAMOND SOARS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 67

PLACE

7 23.5

8 36.5

12 29

QUINELLA

7,12 363.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,8 146.5

7,12 113.5

8,12 214.5

FORECAST

7,12 642

TIERCE

7,12,8 6,297

TRIO

7,8,12 1,675

FIRST 4

6,7,8,12 8,684

QUARTET

7,12,8,6 139,990

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,5,9/7,8,12 21,977

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 23.5

3RD DOUBLE

2/7 446

2/12 108