Happy Valley · 2022-09-14 · 19:46
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2022-09-14 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WINNING ICEY, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with H Z TOURBILLON second and HERCULES third. The 3.2 favourite HERO STAR finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | WINNING ICEY TT 1.09.95 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 3 | 4.0 | N |
| 2 | 1 | H Z TOURBILLON TT H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 7 | 21.0 | N |
| 3 | 8 | HERCULES XB-/B/TT S De Sousa · C H Yip | S De Sousa | C H Yip | 1 | 5.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 7 | HERO STAR TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 4 | 3.2 | 1 |
| 5 | 9 | PERFECT PEACH B/H/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz | L Hewitson | A S Cruz | 8 | 18.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | WIND SPEEDER C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 2 | 9.8 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | NEXTMODEL TT K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 10 | 11.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | GOODLUCK GOODLUCK M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 9 | 19.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 5 | HOODABUTTA Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 6 | 22.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 6 | SPARTAN MISSILE L Currie · D J Hall | L Currie | D J Hall | 5 | 14.0 | 8-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | HOODABUTTA | 21.8% | 4.59 | 9 |
| 2 | 8 | HERCULES | 17.2% | 5.80 | 3 |
| 3 | 7 | HERO STAR | 16.5% | 6.05 | 4 |
| 4 | 4 | WINNING ICEY | 10.7% | 9.34 | 1 |
| 5 | 3 | WIND SPEEDER | 8.9% | 11.26 | 6 |
| 6 | 10 | NEXTMODEL | 6.9% | 14.56 | 7 |
| 7 | 6 | SPARTAN MISSILE | 6.1% | 16.39 | 10 |
| 8 | 2 | GOODLUCK GOODLUCK | 5.5% | 18.27 | 8 |
| 9 | 9 | PERFECT PEACH | 3.8% | 26.47 | 5 |
| 10 | 1 | H Z TOURBILLON | 2.7% | 37.41 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 40.5
PLACE
1 54
4 15.5
8 16
QUINELLA
1,4 387.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 123
1,8 143.5
4,8 36
FORECAST
4,1 850
TIERCE
4,1,8 2,773
TRIO
1,4,8 512
FIRST 4
1,4,7,8 260
QUARTET
4,1,8,7 7,488
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
7/1 793.5
7/4 1,974.5
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 22.5
A3 —