Happy Valley · 2022-09-14 · 21:47
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2022-09-14 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. AMAZING BOY, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by C W Chang, won by 1-1/2, with RUN THE TABLE second and OUR CREED third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.5 favourite BIG TWO finished 9th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | AMAZING BOY Closed strongly TT 1.40.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · C W Chang | S De Sousa | C W Chang | 6 | 6.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 11 | RUN THE TABLE Closed strongly H M Chadwick · K W Lui | M Chadwick | K W Lui | 2 | 11.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 10 | OUR CREED Led early V Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 12 | 6.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 7 | KUNGFUMASTER PANDA Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 10 | 14.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | SPARKY STAR Closed strongly B H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 8 | 4.9 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | SUPER BUDDY B K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 4 | 26.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 1 | FEARLESS FIRE Closed strongly XB L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 3 | 16.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 4 | VINCY Closed strongly SR-/TT- C L Chau · C H Yip | C L Chau | C H Yip | 11 | 29.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 2 | BIG TWO Closed strongly H/SR/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 9 | 4.5 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | FLYING SILVER CP/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 5 | 29.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | EVER LAUGH B/TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 7 | 23.0 | 7-1/2 |
| — | 8 | GO FOR TEA L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 1 | 7.9 | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | BIG TWO | 21.9% | 4.57 | 9 |
| 2 | 10 | OUR CREED | 19.6% | 5.09 | 3 |
| 3 | 11 | RUN THE TABLE | 15.0% | 6.68 | 2 |
| 4 | 12 | AMAZING BOY | 10.4% | 9.62 | 1 |
| 5 | 3 | SPARKY STAR | 7.7% | 12.92 | 5 |
| 6 | 4 | VINCY | 6.5% | 15.33 | 8 |
| 7 | 5 | EVER LAUGH | 5.2% | 19.36 | 11 |
| 8 | 7 | KUNGFUMASTER PANDA | 5.1% | 19.73 | 4 |
| 9 | 1 | FEARLESS FIRE | 4.4% | 22.51 | 7 |
| 10 | 6 | SUPER BUDDY | 2.7% | 37.04 | 6 |
| 11 | 9 | FLYING SILVER | 1.5% | 67.66 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 66
PLACE
10 26
11 37.5
12 22.5
QUINELLA
11,12 331.5
QUINELLA PLACE
10,11 146.5
10,12 85
11,12 117.5
FORECAST
12,11 701
TIERCE
12,11,10 3,415
TRIO
10,11,12 803
FIRST 4
7,10,11,12 2,224
QUARTET
12,11,10,7 41,999
All pools (4 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
4,5,11/10,11,12 223,927
3 PICK 1
A3 23.5
A2 —
A1 —
5TH DOUBLE
11/11 902.5
11/12 3,787.5
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
7,8,12/4,5,11/Any Combination 69,318