Happy Valley · 2022-10-12 · 18:46
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-10-12 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. STAR OF WUYI, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by Y S Tsui, won by NOSE, with SHENRON second and JAZZ STEED third. The 2.4 favourite NEXTMODEL finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | STAR OF WUYI B/TT2 0.57.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 6 | 10.0 | NOSE |
| 2 | 10 | SHENRON H/P/XB R Maia · P C Ng | R Maia | P C Ng | 7 | 7.6 | NOSE |
| 3 | 2 | JAZZ STEED B2/TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 10 | 13.0 | N |
| 4 | 3 | NEXTMODEL TT Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 4 | 2.4 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | SHANGHAI POWER B M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 8 | 19.0 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | DASHING GENIUS TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 3 | 43.0 | 1 |
| 7 | 1 | STRIVE FOR GLORY P/TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 5 | 12.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | STEEL WIN V/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 2 | 21.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 9 | 12 | LITTLE PLAYER XB1/B2/TT1 M F Poon · J Richards | M F Poon | J Richards | 1 | 7.0 | 2 |
| 10 | 5 | GLORIFIED FIRE C L Chau · C H Yip | C L Chau | C H Yip | 9 | 14.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | SMART FOLKS B S De Sousa · C W Chang | S De Sousa | C W Chang | 12 | 16.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 12 | 7 | ACA POWER H1 L Currie · D J Hall | L Currie | D J Hall | 11 | 29.0 | 3-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | NEXTMODEL | 20.5% | 4.87 | 4 |
| 2 | 12 | LITTLE PLAYER | 13.0% | 7.72 | 9 |
| 3 | 4 | SMART FOLKS | 9.7% | 10.33 | 11 |
| 4 | 5 | GLORIFIED FIRE | 9.5% | 10.58 | 10 |
| 5 | 7 | ACA POWER | 8.0% | 12.49 | 12 |
| 6 | 9 | STAR OF WUYI | 7.9% | 12.64 | 1 |
| 7 | 1 | STRIVE FOR GLORY | 7.7% | 12.94 | 7 |
| 8 | 10 | SHENRON | 6.6% | 15.20 | 2 |
| 9 | 11 | DASHING GENIUS | 6.4% | 15.56 | 6 |
| 10 | 6 | SHANGHAI POWER | 4.3% | 23.03 | 5 |
| 11 | 8 | STEEL WIN | 4.0% | 25.18 | 8 |
| 12 | 2 | JAZZ STEED | 2.4% | 41.62 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 109.5
PLACE
2 31.5
9 33.5
10 22.5
QUINELLA
9,10 371.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,9 289.5
2,10 178.5
9,10 120.5
FORECAST
9,10 1,014
TIERCE
9,10,2 12,191
TRIO
2,9,10 2,325
FIRST 4
2,3,9,10 1,097
QUARTET
9,10,2,3 31,758
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 26.5
A2 —