Happy Valley · 2022-10-12 · 19:46

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A 9 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-10-12 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. STREET SCREAM, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by A S Cruz, won by 2-1/4, with FIVE ELEMENTS second and SOLAR WINDS third. The 3.0 favourite FIVE ELEMENTS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.13

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	8	STREET SCREAM B/H/TT 1.09.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · A S Cruz	M Chadwick	A S Cruz	3	125 lb	3.3	2-1/4
2	2	FIVE ELEMENTS B Z Purton · F C Lor	Z Purton	F C Lor	1	135 lb	3.0	2-1/4
3	7	SOLAR WINDS H/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes	L Ferraris	C Fownes	2	126 lb	5.5	3
4	1	DYNAMIC SPIRIT TT C Y Ho · C S Shum	C Y Ho	C S Shum	8	135 lb	51.0	4-1/2
5	3	VALIANT ELEGANCE B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	7	135 lb	9.2	5-1/2
6	6	CLASSIC POSH K H Chan · D J Hall	K H Chan	D J Hall	6	123 lb	23.0	6
7	4	ELON E/P A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	4	131 lb	13.0	6
8	5	JAZZ CLUB C L Chau · K W Lui	C L Chau	K W Lui	5	127 lb	31.0	6-1/4
9	9	TRADER CP/TT M F Poon · P C Ng	M F Poon	P C Ng	9	118 lb	8.2	6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick FIVE ELEMENTS (33.7%) finished 2nd — the winner STREET SCREAM was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	FIVE ELEMENTS	33.7%	2.96	2	3.0
2	8	STREET SCREAM	17.2%	5.81	1	3.3
3	7	SOLAR WINDS	14.2%	7.04	3	5.5
4	3	VALIANT ELEGANCE	9.2%	10.91	5	9.2
5	6	CLASSIC POSH	8.3%	11.98	6	23.0
6	9	TRADER	8.0%	12.50	9	8.2
7	4	ELON	5.2%	19.27	7	13.0
8	5	JAZZ CLUB	2.5%	40.35	8	31.0
9	1	DYNAMIC SPIRIT	1.7%	60.10	4	51.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 33

PLACE

2 12.5

7 19.5

8 14

QUINELLA

2,8 49

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 29.5

2,8 21.5

7,8 32

FORECAST

8,2 121

TIERCE

8,2,7 292

TRIO

2,7,8 57

FIRST 4

1,2,7,8 578

QUARTET

8,2,7,1 5,427

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

9/2 66

9/8 387.5

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 16

A3 —

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