Happy Valley · 2022-10-12 · 20:16
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-10-12 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BERLIN TANGO, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by A S Cruz, won by NOSE, with EVERYONE'S DELIGHT second and SAVAQUIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite FA FA finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | BERLIN TANGO Closed strongly B/H/TT 1.39.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · A S Cruz | S De Sousa | A S Cruz | 3 | 8.9 | NOSE |
| 2 | 5 | EVERYONE'S DELIGHT Led early V/TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 1 | 5.6 | NOSE |
| 3 | 3 | SAVAQUIN Closed strongly Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 6 | 5.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | FA FA Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 5 | 2.5 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | CHARITY GO SR M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 2 | 12.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | JUMBO FORTUNE H/TT M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 4 | 3.5 | 6 |
| — | 1 | TELECOM FIGHTERS L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | — | — | — |
| — | 7 | SUNNY STAR R Maia · K W Lui | R Maia | K W Lui | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SAVAQUIN | 28.5% | 3.51 | 3 |
| 2 | 6 | FA FA | 19.8% | 5.04 | 4 |
| 3 | 8 | JUMBO FORTUNE | 18.8% | 5.31 | 6 |
| 4 | 5 | EVERYONE'S DELIGHT | 14.3% | 6.99 | 2 |
| 5 | 2 | BERLIN TANGO | 10.8% | 9.24 | 1 |
| 6 | 4 | CHARITY GO | 7.7% | 12.99 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 89.5
PLACE
2 19.5
3 16
5 18
QUINELLA
2,5 223
A1 —
A2 —
A3 —
- —
FORECAST
2,5 446
TIERCE
2,5,3 1,860
TRIO
2,3,5 284
FIRST 4
2,3,5,6 112
QUARTET
2,5,3,6 4,624
3RD DOUBLE
8/2 276
8/5 41