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Happy Valley · 2022-10-12 · 22:18

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course A 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2022-10-12 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. KUNGFUMASTER PANDA, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-3/4, with OWNERS' STAR second and CHATER PINS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite CIRCUIT ELITE finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.49.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA Closed strongly B/TT 1.49.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng 3 5.1 1-3/4
2 11 OWNERS' STAR Closed strongly B V Borges · W Y So 8 18.0 1-3/4
3 10 CHATER PINS Closed strongly SR C Y Ho · D A Hayes 9 10.0 2
4 2 PALACE PAL Closed strongly C L Chau · T P Yung 1 14.0 2
5 4 SMILING TIME Closed strongly V/TT L Currie · K H Ting 6 11.0 2-3/4
6 3 KOWLOON GREAT Closed strongly CP/TT A Badel · C S Shum 11 7.2 3-1/2
7 9 CIRCUIT ELITE B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 4 3.1 4
8 6 RED ELYSEES Led early B/TT S De Sousa · K L Man 12 26.0 5-1/2
9 7 TAILOR MADE TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 2 9.0 5-3/4
10 8 SEATOSKY K C Leung · P F Yiu 10 72.0 6-3/4
11 12 PASSING FASHION XB/TT R Maia · C H Yip 7 14.0 7-3/4
12 1 SURREALISM B L Ferraris · R Gibson 5 43.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KUNGFUMASTER PANDA2. OWNERS' STAR+1.75L3. CHATER PINS+2L4. PALACE PAL+2L5. SMILING TIME+2.75L6. KOWLOON GREAT+3.5L7. CIRCUIT ELITE+4L8. RED ELYSEES+5.5L9. TAILOR MADE+5.75L10. SEATOSKY+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick CIRCUIT ELITE (13.9%) finished 7th — the winner KUNGFUMASTER PANDA was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 CIRCUIT ELITE 13.9% 7.18 7
2 5 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA 13.3% 7.53 1
3 11 OWNERS' STAR 12.2% 8.18 2
4 7 TAILOR MADE 11.2% 8.95 9
5 12 PASSING FASHION 8.5% 11.77 11
6 2 PALACE PAL 7.8% 12.81 4
7 1 SURREALISM 7.7% 13.03 12
8 10 CHATER PINS 7.6% 13.20 3
9 3 KOWLOON GREAT 6.8% 14.70 6
10 4 SMILING TIME 6.3% 15.76 5
11 6 RED ELYSEES 3.5% 28.86 8
12 8 SEATOSKY 1.2% 81.39 10
CIRCUIT ELITEKUNGFUMASTER PANDA — wonOWNERS' STARTAILOR MADEPASSING FASHIONPALACE PALSURREALISMCHATER PINSKOWLOON GREATSMILING TIMERED ELYSEESSEATOSKY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 51

PLACE

5 19

10 29.5

11 46.5

QUINELLA

5,11 451

QUINELLA PLACE

5,10 103

5,11 129.5

10,11 281

FORECAST

5,11 928

TIERCE

5,11,10 8,148

TRIO

5,10,11 1,522

FIRST 4

2,5,10,11 4,143

QUARTET

5,11,10,2 74,114

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 19.5

A3

A2

7TH DOUBLE

4/5 68.5

4/11 64.5