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Happy Valley · 2023-01-18 · 19:46

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-01-18 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. LONDON LUCKYSTAR, ridden by C L Chau and trained by K W Lui, won by 3, with JOLLY HONOUR second and MEDIC ELITE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.6 favourite AMAZING NEWS finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.40.44
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 LONDON LUCKYSTAR Closed strongly B/TT 1.40.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · K W Lui 10 9.2 3
2 9 JOLLY HONOUR Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · Y S Tsui 5 4.7 3
3 4 MEDIC ELITE PC/TT S De Sousa · P C Ng 7 6.2 3
4 5 OUR CREED Led early V A Badel · K H Ting 1 7.8 3-1/2
5 12 JOY MASTER Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · W Y So 4 11.0 4
6 1 FLASH FAMOUS Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · C H Yip 11 23.0 4-1/4
7 8 AMAZING NEWS E/P M L Yeung · C Fownes 6 4.6 4-1/4
8 11 ONE STEP AHEAD Closed strongly L Currie · C W Chang 8 21.0 5-1/4
9 2 VUKAN B/XB/TT L Ferraris · J Richards 3 9.3 5-1/2
10 6 RING BELLS B/XB/TT1 R Maia · R Gibson 2 14.0 5-1/2
11 3 ANGELS HUNTER B K Teetan · K L Man 12 38.0 5-3/4
12 10 KARUIZAWA B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 9 90.0 11-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LONDON LUCKYSTAR2. JOLLY HONOUR+3L3. MEDIC ELITE+3L4. OUR CREED+3.5L5. JOY MASTER+4L6. FLASH FAMOUS+4.25L7. AMAZING NEWS+4.25L8. ONE STEP AHEAD+5.25L9. VUKAN+5.5L10. RING BELLS+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MEDIC ELITE (21.3%) finished 3rd — the winner LONDON LUCKYSTAR was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 MEDIC ELITE 21.3% 4.70 3
2 8 AMAZING NEWS 13.6% 7.35 7
3 7 LONDON LUCKYSTAR 12.1% 8.27 1
4 5 OUR CREED 9.0% 11.14 4
5 9 JOLLY HONOUR 7.8% 12.78 2
6 12 JOY MASTER 6.9% 14.48 5
7 1 FLASH FAMOUS 6.7% 14.83 6
8 3 ANGELS HUNTER 6.5% 15.35 11
9 11 ONE STEP AHEAD 6.1% 16.33 8
10 6 RING BELLS 5.4% 18.44 10
11 2 VUKAN 3.0% 33.30 9
12 10 KARUIZAWA 1.5% 66.99 12
MEDIC ELITEAMAZING NEWSLONDON LUCKYSTAR — wonOUR CREEDJOLLY HONOURJOY MASTERFLASH FAMOUSANGELS HUNTERONE STEP AHEADRING BELLSVUKANKARUIZAWA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 92.5

PLACE

4 22.5

7 28

9 16.5

QUINELLA

7,9 296.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 93

4,9 73.5

7,9 90

FORECAST

7,9 607

TIERCE

7,9,4 3,577

TRIO

4,7,9 534

FIRST 4

4,5,7,9 674

QUARTET

7,9,4,5 20,804

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE

5/7 968.5

5/9 79

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

4,5,12/4,7,9 64,808

3 PICK 1

A3 24.5

A2

A1