Happy Valley · 2023-01-18 · 22:52
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2023-01-18 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by D J Whyte, won by N, with CALIFORNIA DEEPLY second and HARMONY N BLESSED third. The 2.4 favourite CALIFORNIA DEEPLY finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN H/SR/TT 0.56.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 9 | 5.9 | N |
| 2 | 2 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 1 | 2.4 | N |
| 3 | 3 | HARMONY N BLESSED XB-/B1/TT H Bowman · D A Hayes | H Bowman | D A Hayes | 12 | 14.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 1 | SPECIAL M PC/TT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 10 | 15.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 4 | GORGEOUS VITALITY Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 4 | 3.4 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | FLYING DRAGON L Hewitson · C H Yip | L Hewitson | C H Yip | 5 | 16.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | SMOKEY BEAR B/XB/TT H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 2 | 43.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 11 | ISLAND GOLDEN TT S De Sousa · K L Man | S De Sousa | K L Man | 6 | 35.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 7 | SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 11 | 36.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 3 | 17.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 12 | MAGIC TORONADO XB H W Lai · W Y So | H W Lai | W Y So | 8 | 144.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | LIFE IS GOOD XB/TT1 R Maia · R Gibson | R Maia | R Gibson | 7 | 115.0 | 14 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | GORGEOUS VITALITY | 24.7% | 4.04 | 5 |
| 2 | 2 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY | 24.4% | 4.09 | 2 |
| 3 | 8 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER | 10.7% | 9.37 | 10 |
| 4 | 11 | ISLAND GOLDEN | 9.3% | 10.75 | 8 |
| 5 | 5 | PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN | 8.6% | 11.67 | 1 |
| 6 | 1 | SPECIAL M | 6.1% | 16.37 | 4 |
| 7 | 3 | HARMONY N BLESSED | 4.2% | 23.59 | 3 |
| 8 | 6 | FLYING DRAGON | 4.1% | 24.56 | 6 |
| 9 | 7 | SUPER AXIOM | 3.5% | 28.66 | 9 |
| 10 | 10 | SMOKEY BEAR | 2.9% | 34.25 | 7 |
| 11 | 9 | LIFE IS GOOD | 0.8% | 131.65 | 12 |
| 12 | 12 | MAGIC TORONADO | 0.7% | 141.80 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 59.5
PLACE
2 11.5
3 48.5
5 18.5
QUINELLA
2,5 70.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 80
2,5 30.5
3,5 147
FORECAST
5,2 199
TIERCE
5,2,3 2,181
TRIO
2,3,5 274
FIRST 4
1,2,3,5 657
QUARTET
5,2,3,1 14,259
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 33
A3 —
A1 —
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
2,9,11/2,3,5 19,468
7TH DOUBLE
2/2 59.5
2/5 515.5
SIX UP
4,5/3,11/1,10/4,6/2,9/2,5 1,508
5/11/1/4/2/5 98,545
2 [C Fownes] —
9 [L Hewitson] —
TREBLE
4/2/2 215
4/2/5 2,255