Happy Valley · 2023-02-22 · 22:18
Race 8
Class 3
GOOD TO FIRM
1200m
Course C+3
12 runners
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2023-02-22 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BEAUTY CHARGE, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/4, with SUGAR SUGAR second and STORMTROUPER third. The 2.9 favourite NORDIC DRAGON finished 10th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | BEAUTY CHARGE H/TT 1.09.18 M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 6 | 5.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 11 | SUGAR SUGAR B/TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 8 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 12 | STORMTROUPER E/TT R Maia · C H Yip | R Maia | C H Yip | 7 | 28.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 9 | COMPASSION SPIRIT B M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 4 | 61.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | GOLDEN LINK A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 2 | 12.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 8 | THE RUNNER V K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 3 | 15.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | MARK THE MOMENT V/TT K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 5 | 6.3 | 4 |
| 8 | 2 | ADIOS CP/TT M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 9 | 18.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | RED DESERT B S De Sousa · J Size | S De Sousa | J Size | 10 | 35.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 6 | NORDIC DRAGON TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 12 | 2.9 | 6 |
| 11 | 4 | TIGER LEGEND TT1 Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 1 | 6.4 | 10-1/4 |
| 12 | 1 | STAR BRITE CP/TT Y L Chung · K W Lui | Y L Chung | K W Lui | 11 | 60.0 | 10-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick TIGER LEGEND (18.5%) finished 11th — the winner BEAUTY CHARGE was rated #6.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | TIGER LEGEND | 18.5% | 5.40 | 11 |
| 2 | 6 | NORDIC DRAGON | 16.4% | 6.11 | 10 |
| 3 | 2 | ADIOS | 10.5% | 9.53 | 8 |
| 4 | 11 | SUGAR SUGAR | 10.2% | 9.77 | 2 |
| 5 | 5 | MARK THE MOMENT | 9.9% | 10.09 | 7 |
| 6 | 3 | BEAUTY CHARGE | 7.5% | 13.31 | 1 |
| 7 | 10 | GOLDEN LINK | 6.1% | 16.35 | 5 |
| 8 | 1 | STAR BRITE | 5.2% | 19.36 | 12 |
| 9 | 7 | RED DESERT | 4.6% | 21.91 | 9 |
| 10 | 12 | STORMTROUPER | 4.4% | 22.94 | 3 |
| 11 | 9 | COMPASSION SPIRIT | 3.5% | 28.37 | 4 |
| 12 | 8 | THE RUNNER | 3.2% | 31.09 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 7
This meeting
Draw bias · Happy Valley 1200m
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