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Happy Valley · 2023-05-17 · 19:16

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-05-17 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. ROMANTIC LAOS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by 3/4, with FEARLESS FIRE second and UNITED ENDEAVORS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.39.57
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 ROMANTIC LAOS Closed strongly H/TT 1.39.57 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards 2 1.6 3/4
2 3 FEARLESS FIRE Led early B/XB L Currie · D A Hayes 3 15.0 3/4
3 12 UNITED ENDEAVORS Closed strongly H M L Yeung · L Ho 5 19.0 3-1/2
4 6 PALACE PAL Closed strongly H Bowman · D J Hall 1 5.3 4-3/4
5 2 BLISSFUL STAR V/TT K Teetan · K H Ting 8 11.0 5-1/4
6 10 PERFECT TO GREAT Closed strongly SR-/V2/TT M Chadwick · C Fownes 7 16.0 5-3/4
7 8 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · K L Man 6 43.0 6-1/2
8 9 CHOICERUS Closed strongly B-/SR2 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 12 44.0 6-1/2
9 5 DARCI LEGEND Closed strongly H-/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 19.0 8-1/4
10 7 GOLD STERLING B1/TT1 A Badel · C H Yip 11 81.0 10-1/4
11 4 RELIABLE PROFIT B1/TT1 M F Poon · C S Shum 10 99.0 15
12 11 JIANGXI STAMINA B/TT H Bentley · W Y So 4 72.0 30-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ROMANTIC LAOS2. FEARLESS FIRE+0.75L3. UNITED ENDEAVORS+3.5L4. PALACE PAL+4.75L5. BLISSFUL STAR+5.25L6. PERFECT TO GREAT+5.75L7. KUNGFUMASTER PANDA+6.5L8. CHOICERUS+6.5L9. DARCI LEGEND+8.25L10. GOLD STERLING+10.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ROMANTIC LAOS (39.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 ROMANTIC LAOS 39.7% 2.52 1
2 6 PALACE PAL 21.0% 4.76 4
3 2 BLISSFUL STAR 8.3% 11.98 5
4 8 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA 5.2% 19.09 7
5 3 FEARLESS FIRE 4.9% 20.40 2
6 10 PERFECT TO GREAT 4.7% 21.49 6
7 5 DARCI LEGEND 4.3% 23.29 9
8 4 RELIABLE PROFIT 3.4% 29.83 11
9 9 CHOICERUS 2.9% 34.96 8
10 11 JIANGXI STAMINA 2.4% 41.99 12
11 12 UNITED ENDEAVORS 2.2% 45.80 3
12 7 GOLD STERLING 1.1% 92.12 10
ROMANTIC LAOS — wonPALACE PALBLISSFUL STARKUNGFUMASTER PANDAFEARLESS FIREPERFECT TO GREATDARCI LEGENDRELIABLE PROFITCHOICERUSJIANGXI STAMINAUNITED ENDEAVORSGOLD STERLING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 16

PLACE

1 10.5

3 25.5

12 44.5

QUINELLA

1,3 84

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 35

1,12 62.5

3,12 216

FORECAST

1,3 97

TIERCE

1,3,12 1,128

TRIO

1,3,12 373

FIRST 4

1,3,6,12 271

QUARTET

1,3,12,6 4,231

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

10/1 124.5

10/3 120

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 12.5

A2