Happy Valley · 2023-05-17 · 20:16
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-05-17 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. THE HULK, ridden by L Currie and trained by C Fownes, won by 2-1/4, with NICE BIRDIE second and MANAGEMENT FOLKS third. The winner led throughout. The 2.1 favourite HOLY POWER finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | THE HULK Wire to wire 1.40.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Currie · C Fownes | L Currie | C Fownes | 4 | 15.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 8 | NICE BIRDIE Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 2 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 10 | MANAGEMENT FOLKS Closed strongly M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 7 | 22.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 1 | HOLY POWER B/XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 3 | 2.1 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | BEAU GOSSE Closed strongly CP-/H L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 5 | 17.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | HAPPY ANGEL B A Badel · P C Ng | A Badel | P C Ng | 12 | 7.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | WIN WIN FIGHTER C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly H/PC/TT A Hamelin · R Gibson | A Hamelin | R Gibson | 10 | 34.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 11 | V CHEVALIERS B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 1 | 7.8 | 6 |
| 10 | 5 | ULTRA EXPRESS B/TT R Maia · A T Millard | R Maia | A T Millard | 6 | 55.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | KING'S CAPITAL H Bowman · D A Hayes | H Bowman | D A Hayes | 8 | 14.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 6 | COPARTNER ERA B K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 11 | 64.0 | 9 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | HOLY POWER | 32.8% | 3.05 | 4 |
| 2 | 11 | V CHEVALIERS | 13.9% | 7.22 | 9 |
| 3 | 8 | NICE BIRDIE | 9.5% | 10.53 | 2 |
| 4 | 10 | MANAGEMENT FOLKS | 7.5% | 13.39 | 3 |
| 5 | 7 | HAPPY ANGEL | 6.4% | 15.59 | 6 |
| 6 | 4 | THE HULK | 6.3% | 15.91 | 1 |
| 7 | 9 | BEAU GOSSE | 6.0% | 16.63 | 5 |
| 8 | 12 | RIGHT HONOURABLE | 5.3% | 18.87 | 8 |
| 9 | 3 | KING'S CAPITAL | 3.7% | 26.94 | 11 |
| 10 | 6 | COPARTNER ERA | 3.4% | 29.37 | 12 |
| 11 | 2 | WIN WIN FIGHTER | 3.3% | 30.31 | 7 |
| 12 | 5 | ULTRA EXPRESS | 1.9% | 52.15 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 159
PLACE
4 38.5
8 32.5
10 46.5
QUINELLA
4,8 877
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 223.5
4,10 291.5
8,10 282
FORECAST
4,8 1,550
TIERCE
4,8,10 22,810
TRIO
4,8,10 3,646
FIRST 4
1,4,8,10 1,647
QUARTET
4,8,10,1 63,556
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 36
3RD DOUBLE
4/4 670
4/8 76.5