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Happy Valley · 2023-05-17 · 21:46

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course B 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-05-17 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. MEANINGFUL STAR, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with ROCKET SPADE second and TIANCHI MONSTER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 5.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.49.27
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 MEANINGFUL STAR Closed strongly B 1.49.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 5.3 SH
2 2 ROCKET SPADE Closed strongly XB/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 4 6.7 SH
3 1 TIANCHI MONSTER Closed strongly H Bowman · W Y So 5 11.0 1
4 7 MAJESTIC VICTORY Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 11 8.1 1-1/4
5 5 TURIN MASCOT Closed strongly SR/TT K Teetan · P C Ng 8 27.0 1-3/4
6 11 YOUNG BRILLIANT B A Badel · C H Yip 10 17.0 1-3/4
7 12 SATIRICAL GLORY Led early H/P1 M F Poon · D A Hayes 2 7.5 2-1/4
8 6 UP AND UP Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C S Shum 7 6.2 3-1/2
9 8 PEGASUS GENERAL V M Chadwick · K H Ting 1 5.6 3-1/2
10 9 HIT THE SHOT Closed strongly TT A Hamelin · J Size 12 22.0 6-1/4
11 4 FLYING QUEST B L Ferraris · D J Hall 3 24.0 8
12 10 VILLA FIONN B L Hewitson · P F Yiu 9 66.0 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MEANINGFUL STAR2. ROCKET SPADE+0.1L3. TIANCHI MONSTER+1L4. MAJESTIC VICTORY+1.25L5. TURIN MASCOT+1.75L6. YOUNG BRILLIANT+1.75L7. SATIRICAL GLORY+2.25L8. UP AND UP+3.5L9. PEGASUS GENERAL+3.5L10. HIT THE SHOT+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick UP AND UP (24.0%) finished 8th — the winner MEANINGFUL STAR was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 UP AND UP 24.0% 4.17 8
2 8 PEGASUS GENERAL 16.1% 6.23 9
3 1 TIANCHI MONSTER 11.6% 8.60 3
4 3 MEANINGFUL STAR 11.6% 8.64 1
5 2 ROCKET SPADE 8.3% 12.05 2
6 7 MAJESTIC VICTORY 5.4% 18.43 4
7 12 SATIRICAL GLORY 5.1% 19.59 7
8 11 YOUNG BRILLIANT 4.6% 21.86 6
9 10 VILLA FIONN 4.1% 24.17 12
10 9 HIT THE SHOT 3.8% 26.28 10
11 4 FLYING QUEST 3.2% 30.92 11
12 5 TURIN MASCOT 2.1% 46.53 5
UP AND UPPEGASUS GENERALTIANCHI MONSTERMEANINGFUL STAR — wonROCKET SPADEMAJESTIC VICTORYSATIRICAL GLORYYOUNG BRILLIANTVILLA FIONNHIT THE SHOTFLYING QUESTTURIN MASCOT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 53

PLACE

1 32

2 23.5

3 18

QUINELLA

2,3 212

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 122

1,3 85.5

2,3 79.5

FORECAST

3,2 345

TIERCE

3,2,1 1,631

TRIO

1,2,3 340

FIRST 4

1,2,3,7 744

QUARTET

3,2,1,7 12,138

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 22

A3

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

5,7,11/1,2,3 59,766

6TH DOUBLE

5/2 96.5

5/3 288.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,3,4/5,7,11/1,2,3 1,654,602

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,3,4/5,7,11/Any Combination 19,596