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Happy Valley · 2023-05-17 · 21:46

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course B 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.49.27
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MEANINGFUL STAR Closed strongly B 1.49.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 5.3 SH
2 0 ROCKET SPADE Closed strongly XB/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 4 6.7 SH
3 0 TIANCHI MONSTER Closed strongly H Bowman · W Y So 5 11.0 1
4 0 MAJESTIC VICTORY Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 11 8.1 1-1/4
6 0 YOUNG BRILLIANT B A Badel · C H Yip 10 17.0 1-3/4
7 0 SATIRICAL GLORY Led early H/P1 M F Poon · D A Hayes 2 7.5 2-1/4
8 0 UP AND UP Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C S Shum 7 6.2 3-1/2
9 0 PEGASUS GENERAL V M Chadwick · K H Ting 1 5.6 3-1/2
10 0 HIT THE SHOT Closed strongly TT A Hamelin · J Size 12 22.0 6-1/4
11 0 FLYING QUEST B L Ferraris · D J Hall 3 24.0 8
12 0 VILLA FIONN B L Hewitson · P F Yiu 9 66.0 10-1/2
— 0 TURIN MASCOT Closed strongly SR/TT K Teetan · P C Ng — 27.0 1-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-05-17 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. MEANINGFUL STAR, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with ROCKET SPADE second and TIANCHI MONSTER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 5.3 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MEANINGFUL STAR—2. ROCKET SPADE+0.1L3. TIANCHI MONSTER+1L4. MAJESTIC VICTORY+1.25L6. YOUNG BRILLIANT+1.75L7. SATIRICAL GLORY+2.25L8. UP AND UP+3.5L9. PEGASUS GENERAL+3.5L10. HIT THE SHOT+6.25L11. FLYING QUEST+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick UP AND UP (24.0%) finished 8th — the winner MEANINGFUL STAR was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 UP AND UP 24.0% 4.17 8
2 0 PEGASUS GENERAL 16.1% 6.23 9
3 0 TIANCHI MONSTER 11.6% 8.60 3
4 0 MEANINGFUL STAR 11.6% 8.64 1
5 0 ROCKET SPADE 8.3% 12.05 2
6 0 MAJESTIC VICTORY 5.4% 18.43 4
7 0 SATIRICAL GLORY 5.1% 19.59 7
8 0 YOUNG BRILLIANT 4.6% 21.86 6
9 0 VILLA FIONN 4.1% 24.17 12
10 0 HIT THE SHOT 3.8% 26.28 10
11 0 FLYING QUEST 3.2% 30.92 11
12 0 TURIN MASCOT 2.1% 46.53 —
UP AND UPPEGASUS GENERALTIANCHI MONSTERMEANINGFUL STAR — wonROCKET SPADEMAJESTIC VICTORYSATIRICAL GLORYYOUNG BRILLIANTVILLA FIONNHIT THE SHOTFLYING QUESTTURIN MASCOT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 53

PLACE

1 32

2 23.5

3 18

QUINELLA

2,3 212

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 122

1,3 85.5

2,3 79.5

FORECAST

3,2 345

TIERCE

3,2,1 1,631

TRIO

1,2,3 340

FIRST 4

1,2,3,7 744

QUARTET

3,2,1,7 12,138

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 —

A2 22

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

5,7,11/1,2,3 59,766

6TH DOUBLE

5/2 96.5

5/3 288.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,3,4/5,7,11/1,2,3 1,654,602

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,3,4/5,7,11/Any Combination 19,596