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Happy Valley · 2023-05-17 · 22:52

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2023-05-17 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SUPERB CAPITALIST, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by 2-1/2, with ALLGREEKTOME second and EXCELLENT PEERS third. The 3.0 favourite BRAVE STAR finished 12th.

Result

Official · 1.09.39
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 SUPERB CAPITALIST H/TT 1.09.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 5.9 2-1/2
2 8 ALLGREEKTOME TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 8 6.7 2-1/2
3 3 EXCELLENT PEERS H/XB M Chadwick · F C Lor 10 63.0 2-3/4
4 4 ARMOUR EAGLE B/XB/TT H Bentley · J Richards 9 41.0 3-1/4
5 2 SON PAK FU BO C L Chau · T P Yung 11 6.3 3-1/4
6 10 GOLDEN LINK A Badel · P F Yiu 12 41.0 3-1/2
7 5 ACE ONE B/SR/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte 6 16.0 3-1/2
8 11 JUNEAU FLASH PC K Teetan · J Size 5 9.2 5
9 7 NICCONI COUNTY TT H Bowman · C Fownes 4 8.1 6
10 12 TELECOM SPEED M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 7 62.0 6-1/2
11 1 FAMILY FOLKS B A Hamelin · C W Chang 2 33.0 7
12 6 BRAVE STAR XB C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 3.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPERB CAPITALIST2. ALLGREEKTOME+2.5L3. EXCELLENT PEERS+2.75L4. ARMOUR EAGLE+3.25L5. SON PAK FU+3.25L6. GOLDEN LINK+3.5L7. ACE ONE+3.5L8. JUNEAU FLASH+5L9. NICCONI COUNTY+6L10. TELECOM SPEED+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BRAVE STAR (21.1%) finished 12th — the winner SUPERB CAPITALIST was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 BRAVE STAR 21.1% 4.75 12
2 2 SON PAK FU 17.8% 5.62 5
3 8 ALLGREEKTOME 14.6% 6.83 2
4 11 JUNEAU FLASH 12.9% 7.72 8
5 7 NICCONI COUNTY 5.7% 17.69 9
6 9 SUPERB CAPITALIST 5.2% 19.16 1
7 5 ACE ONE 4.8% 20.68 7
8 12 TELECOM SPEED 4.7% 21.15 10
9 3 EXCELLENT PEERS 4.3% 23.36 3
10 4 ARMOUR EAGLE 3.6% 27.84 4
11 10 GOLDEN LINK 3.5% 28.92 6
12 1 FAMILY FOLKS 1.8% 56.04 11
BRAVE STARSON PAK FUALLGREEKTOMEJUNEAU FLASHNICCONI COUNTYSUPERB CAPITALIST — wonACE ONETELECOM SPEEDEXCELLENT PEERSARMOUR EAGLEGOLDEN LINKFAMILY FOLKS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 59

PLACE

3 117.5

8 21

9 23.5

QUINELLA

8,9 219

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 543.5

3,9 539

8,9 81.5

FORECAST

9,8 573

TIERCE

9,8,3 15,794

TRIO

3,8,9 3,914

FIRST 4

3,4,8,9 17,149

QUARTET

9,8,3,4 216,064

All pools (5 more)

2ND TREBLE

3/11/8 1,886

3/11/9 10,824

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 23.5

A3

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

6,11,12/3,8,9 340,076

8TH DOUBLE

11/8 356

11/9 1,547.5

SIX UP

4/4/5/3/11/9 2,586,260

4,8/1,4/5,11/2,3/6,11/8,9 15,360

1 [C Fownes]

9 [L Ferraris]