Happy Valley · 2023-12-06 · 10:35
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-12-06 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. DIAMOND FLARE, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won by N, with HERCULES second and EASY TWO third. The 3.4 favourite VALHALLA finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | DIAMOND FLARE B2 1.10.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 3 | 7.5 | N |
| 2 | 3 | HERCULES B/TT K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 1 | 8.1 | N |
| 3 | 9 | EASY TWO B-/H/V1/TT C L Chau · K H Ting | C L Chau | K H Ting | 4 | 33.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 7 | MODEST GENTLEMAN B1/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 5 | 7.2 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | CRYSTAL POWERFUL CP-/B1/H1/TT B Avdulla · W K Mo | B Avdulla | W K Mo | 2 | 8.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 4 | VALHALLA XB/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 6 | 3.4 | 3 |
| 7 | 2 | H Z TOURBILLON TT T Marquand · T P Yung | T Marquand | T P Yung | 12 | 24.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | GOODMANSHIP B/TT J McDonald · D J Whyte | J McDonald | D J Whyte | 11 | 14.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 12 | NOIR RIDER B/XB H Doyle · C W Chang | H Doyle | C W Chang | 8 | 14.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 11 | SUPER HORNET B/XB/TT A Atzeni · J Richards | A Atzeni | J Richards | 10 | 50.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | NOBLE BOYZ V/TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 7 | 10.0 | 26-1/4 |
| 12 | 8 | DRAGON KINGDOM B- K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 9 | 13.0 | 36 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | VALHALLA | 25.5% | 3.92 | 6 |
| 2 | 3 | HERCULES | 11.1% | 8.98 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | NOBLE BOYZ | 9.9% | 10.13 | 11 |
| 4 | 7 | MODEST GENTLEMAN | 9.3% | 10.79 | 4 |
| 5 | 6 | GOODMANSHIP | 9.2% | 10.92 | 8 |
| 6 | 12 | NOIR RIDER | 6.6% | 15.07 | 9 |
| 7 | 2 | H Z TOURBILLON | 5.6% | 17.93 | 7 |
| 8 | 5 | CRYSTAL POWERFUL | 5.3% | 18.71 | 5 |
| 9 | 9 | EASY TWO | 5.0% | 20.12 | 3 |
| 10 | 11 | SUPER HORNET | 4.8% | 20.70 | 10 |
| 11 | 1 | DIAMOND FLARE | 4.6% | 21.80 | 1 |
| 12 | 8 | DRAGON KINGDOM | 3.1% | 32.23 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 75.5
PLACE
1 24.5
3 22
9 77.5
QUINELLA
1,3 326.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 110
1,9 357.5
3,9 341
FORECAST
1,3 575
TIERCE
1,3,9 12,676
TRIO
1,3,9 3,150
FIRST 4
1,3,7,9 3,790
QUARTET
1,3,9,7 90,265