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Happy Valley · 2023-12-06 · 14:15

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2023-12-06 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TOMODACHI KOKOROE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1/2, with KAHOLO ANGEL second and TORONADO PHANTOM third. The 4.3 favourite GAMEPLAYER ELITE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.10.19
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 TOMODACHI KOKOROE H/TT 1.10.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · D A Hayes 8 7.2 1/2
2 11 KAHOLO ANGEL TT Z Purton · C Fownes 2 4.5 1/2
3 10 TORONADO PHANTOM TT R King · J Size 1 6.0 1-3/4
4 9 GAMEPLAYER ELITE SR J McDonald · D J Whyte 4 4.3 2-1/4
5 4 SOLID IMPACT B B Murzabayev · D J Hall 11 56.0 3-1/4
6 8 SUGAR SUGAR B/TT M Barzalona · C Fownes 12 14.0 3-1/2
7 1 LIGHTNING BOLT TT K Teetan · C S Shum 3 14.0 4
8 12 SOLAR PARTNER TT R Moore · P F Yiu 5 14.0 4-3/4
9 6 GOLDEN EMPIRE B T Marquand · K W Lui 7 20.0 4-3/4
10 2 LUCKY ARCHANGEL B/XB L Hewitson · F C Lor 6 11.0 5
11 3 SINBA CP-/B2/TT H Doyle · J Richards 10 18.0 6
12 7 BEAUTY GLORY CP/H/TT Y Kawada · A S Cruz 9 31.0 8-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TOMODACHI KOKOROE2. KAHOLO ANGEL+0.5L3. TORONADO PHANTOM+1.75L4. GAMEPLAYER ELITE+2.25L5. SOLID IMPACT+3.25L6. SUGAR SUGAR+3.5L7. LIGHTNING BOLT+4L8. SOLAR PARTNER+4.75L9. GOLDEN EMPIRE+4.75L10. LUCKY ARCHANGEL+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick KAHOLO ANGEL (36.8%) finished 2nd — the winner TOMODACHI KOKOROE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 KAHOLO ANGEL 36.8% 2.72 2
2 1 LIGHTNING BOLT 12.2% 8.23 7
3 5 TOMODACHI KOKOROE 9.8% 10.23 1
4 12 SOLAR PARTNER 8.9% 11.29 8
5 10 TORONADO PHANTOM 5.5% 18.29 3
6 9 GAMEPLAYER ELITE 4.8% 20.65 4
7 7 BEAUTY GLORY 4.8% 20.73 12
8 2 LUCKY ARCHANGEL 4.7% 21.40 10
9 8 SUGAR SUGAR 4.1% 24.32 6
10 3 SINBA 3.5% 28.89 11
11 6 GOLDEN EMPIRE 2.9% 33.93 9
12 4 SOLID IMPACT 2.1% 47.48 5
KAHOLO ANGELLIGHTNING BOLTTOMODACHI KOKOROE — wonSOLAR PARTNERTORONADO PHANTOMGAMEPLAYER ELITEBEAUTY GLORYLUCKY ARCHANGELSUGAR SUGARSINBAGOLDEN EMPIRESOLID IMPACT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 72

PLACE

5 24.5

10 19

11 21.5

QUINELLA

5,11 208.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,10 82

5,11 78

10,11 56.5

FORECAST

5,11 433

TIERCE

5,11,10 2,166

TRIO

5,10,11 408

FIRST 4

5,9,10,11 226

QUARTET

5,11,10,9 7,094

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

8/5 1,191

8/11 100.5

5 [C Y Ho]