Happy Valley · 2023-12-06 · 11:05
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-12-06 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. NICE BIRDIE, ridden by C L Chau and trained by C S Shum, won by HD, with MEDIC ELITE second and HANG'S CHOICE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite HAPPY JAI JAI finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | NICE BIRDIE Closed strongly TT 1.43.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 11 | 30.0 | HD |
| 2 | 8 | MEDIC ELITE PC/TT H Doyle · P C Ng | H Doyle | P C Ng | 8 | 7.6 | HD |
| 3 | 10 | HANG'S CHOICE Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 7 | 6.4 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | ONE HEART ONE Closed strongly CP/XB1/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 10 | 13.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | BROTHER PEARL L Ferraris · C H Yip | L Ferraris | C H Yip | 1 | 11.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | HAPPY JAI JAI TT Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 4 | 3.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | LOYAL AMBITION J McDonald · C Fownes | J McDonald | C Fownes | 5 | 7.7 | 3 |
| 8 | 11 | MISTER ARM Led early H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 3 | 34.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 1 | CHARMANDER B/TT C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 9 | 9.1 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | DOUBLE SHOW P-/B2/TT T Marquand · D J Whyte | T Marquand | D J Whyte | 2 | 9.6 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 2 | CIRCUIT ELITE B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 12 | 29.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 12 | COMPULSORY CP/XB A Atzeni · C W Chang | A Atzeni | C W Chang | 6 | 15.0 | 11-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | HAPPY JAI JAI | 17.3% | 5.79 | 6 |
| 2 | 9 | DOUBLE SHOW | 16.2% | 6.16 | 10 |
| 3 | 8 | MEDIC ELITE | 12.1% | 8.25 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | CHARMANDER | 10.9% | 9.19 | 9 |
| 5 | 10 | HANG'S CHOICE | 10.0% | 9.98 | 3 |
| 6 | 7 | LOYAL AMBITION | 8.2% | 12.19 | 7 |
| 7 | 12 | COMPULSORY | 7.6% | 13.18 | 12 |
| 8 | 6 | BROTHER PEARL | 4.6% | 21.58 | 5 |
| 9 | 4 | NICE BIRDIE | 4.1% | 24.15 | 1 |
| 10 | 5 | ONE HEART ONE | 3.8% | 26.07 | 4 |
| 11 | 2 | CIRCUIT ELITE | 3.1% | 32.25 | 11 |
| 12 | 11 | MISTER ARM | 2.0% | 50.92 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 307.5
PLACE
4 81
8 28
10 22.5
QUINELLA
4,8 1,330
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 374
4,10 305
8,10 109
FORECAST
4,8 3,413
TIERCE
4,8,10 21,422
TRIO
4,8,10 2,465
FIRST 4
4,5,8,10 4,785
QUARTET
4,8,10,5 159,228
All pools (1 more)
1ST DOUBLE
1/4 3,153.5
1/8 180.5