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Happy Valley · 2023-12-06 · 21:41

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.69
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SILVER SONIC Closed strongly XB 1.40.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui 7 9.2 1-1/2
2 0 QUANTUM PATCH Closed strongly M Barzalona · P C Ng 9 3.2 1-1/2
3 0 ALL BEAUTY Closed strongly L Hewitson · F C Lor 4 10.0 3-1/2
4 0 SPLENDID LIVING CP/TT T Marquand · P F Yiu 10 18.0 3-3/4
5 0 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR Closed strongly TT J McDonald · C Fownes 5 12.0 4
6 0 E LEGEND Led early B Murzabayev · K L Man 3 11.0 4-1/2
7 0 STAR CONTACT CP/TT R King · D A Hayes 8 59.0 4-1/2
8 0 STORM LEGEND Closed strongly C Y Ho · C Fownes 11 20.0 5-1/2
9 0 IVY LEAGUE Closed strongly H/SR/XB/TT R Moore · D J Whyte 12 15.0 6
10 0 FLYING MOJITO B/XB H Doyle · D J Hall 1 7.4 7-1/2
11 0 D STAR B/TT Y Kawada · A S Cruz 6 14.0 9-1/4
12 0 SIXTH GENERATION CP-/H/B2/TT K Teetan · J Richards 2 7.2 9-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-12-06 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SILVER SONIC, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/2, with QUANTUM PATCH second and ALL BEAUTY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite QUANTUM PATCH finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SILVER SONIC—2. QUANTUM PATCH+1.5L3. ALL BEAUTY+3.5L4. SPLENDID LIVING+3.75L5. FLAGSHIP WARRIOR+4L6. E LEGEND+4.5L7. STAR CONTACT+4.5L8. STORM LEGEND+5.5L9. IVY LEAGUE+6L10. FLYING MOJITO+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick FLYING MOJITO (16.0%) finished 10th — the winner SILVER SONIC was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 FLYING MOJITO 16.0% 6.25 10
2 0 QUANTUM PATCH 12.8% 7.81 2
3 0 D STAR 9.9% 10.09 11
4 0 SIXTH GENERATION 9.6% 10.44 12
5 0 SILVER SONIC 8.2% 12.18 1
6 0 IVY LEAGUE 8.0% 12.44 9
7 0 E LEGEND 7.8% 12.79 6
8 0 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR 6.8% 14.68 5
9 0 ALL BEAUTY 6.3% 15.93 3
10 0 SPLENDID LIVING 5.5% 18.14 4
11 0 STAR CONTACT 4.6% 21.93 7
12 0 STORM LEGEND 4.5% 22.35 8
FLYING MOJITOQUANTUM PATCHD STARSIXTH GENERATIONSILVER SONIC — wonIVY LEAGUEE LEGENDFLAGSHIP WARRIORALL BEAUTYSPLENDID LIVINGSTAR CONTACTSTORM LEGEND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 92.5

PLACE

4 15.5

6 35.5

8 35.5

QUINELLA

4,8 207.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 85.5

4,8 82.5

6,8 204

FORECAST

8,4 491

TIERCE

8,4,6 5,141

TRIO

4,6,8 774

FIRST 4

1,4,6,8 2,370

QUARTET

8,4,6,1 54,393

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

6,9,12/4,6,8 124,205

6TH DOUBLE

6/4 49.5

6/8 902

TRIPLE TRIO

4,5,11/6,9,12/4,6,8 1,570,982

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,5,11/6,9,12/Any Combination 2,067