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Happy Valley · 2023-12-06 · 12:55

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-12-06 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. M UNICORN, ridden by R Moore and trained by C Fownes, won by 1, with RED HARE KING second and SURE JOYFUL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.41.32
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 M UNICORN Closed strongly H/P/TT 1.41.32 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Moore · C Fownes 4 2.6 1
2 5 RED HARE KING Closed strongly TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz 3 6.3 1
3 11 SURE JOYFUL Closed strongly C Y Ho · P F Yiu 2 3.6 1
4 10 SUPERB MOVE Closed strongly B/TT Y Kawada · C H Yip 7 31.0 2-1/2
5 9 BEAUTY MISSION Closed strongly SR/V/TT B Murzabayev · F C Lor 12 50.0 2-3/4
6 3 SNOWALOT Closed strongly B K Teetan · D A Hayes 8 11.0 3-1/4
7 1 WIDE BLUE YONDER B/TT J McDonald · D A Hayes 11 48.0 5
8 2 DURHAM STAR Closed strongly SR/XB M Barzalona · D J Whyte 5 14.0 5-3/4
9 12 TO INFINITY B/TT R King · J Richards 6 27.0 6-3/4
10 6 TATTENHAM Led early Z Purton · P C Ng 10 32.0 7-1/2
11 7 CLUB SODA H Doyle · J Size 1 15.0 7-3/4
12 8 KILLER INSTINCT TT T Marquand · C Fownes 9 29.0 8-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. M UNICORN2. RED HARE KING+1L3. SURE JOYFUL+1L4. SUPERB MOVE+2.5L5. BEAUTY MISSION+2.75L6. SNOWALOT+3.25L7. WIDE BLUE YONDER+5L8. DURHAM STAR+5.75L9. TO INFINITY+6.75L10. TATTENHAM+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick M UNICORN (20.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 M UNICORN 20.1% 4.99 1
2 11 SURE JOYFUL 15.5% 6.43 3
3 6 TATTENHAM 10.0% 9.97 10
4 2 DURHAM STAR 7.9% 12.63 8
5 3 SNOWALOT 6.8% 14.81 6
6 7 CLUB SODA 6.4% 15.71 11
7 12 TO INFINITY 6.0% 16.69 9
8 9 BEAUTY MISSION 6.0% 16.80 5
9 10 SUPERB MOVE 5.9% 16.93 4
10 5 RED HARE KING 5.7% 17.68 2
11 1 WIDE BLUE YONDER 5.6% 17.92 7
12 8 KILLER INSTINCT 4.2% 23.53 12
M UNICORN — wonSURE JOYFULTATTENHAMDURHAM STARSNOWALOTCLUB SODATO INFINITYBEAUTY MISSIONSUPERB MOVERED HARE KINGWIDE BLUE YONDERKILLER INSTINCT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 26.5

PLACE

4 13.5

5 17

11 16

QUINELLA

4,5 88.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 38

4,11 25

5,11 41

FORECAST

4,5 144

TIERCE

4,5,11 426

TRIO

4,5,11 87

FIRST 4

4,5,10,11 463

QUARTET

4,5,11,10 5,650

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

10/11/4 2,265

10/11/5 1,741

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,9,11/4,5,11 61,339

4TH DOUBLE

11/4 424.5

11/5 290