Happy Valley · 2023-12-20 · 11:30

Race 1

Class 3 GOOD 2200m Course C 8 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-12-20 was Class 3 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. INTREPID WINNER, ridden by K De Melo and trained by C W Chang, won by 1/2, with NATURAL STORM second and TURIN MASCOT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite TURIN MASCOT finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 2.16.58

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	8	INTREPID WINNER Closed strongly B 2.16.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K De Melo · C W Chang	K De Melo	C W Chang	6	120 lb	10.0	1/2
2	1	NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B J McDonald · P F Yiu	J McDonald	P F Yiu	7	134 lb	10.0	1/2
3	2	TURIN MASCOT Closed strongly SR/TT Z Purton · P C Ng	Z Purton	P C Ng	2	132 lb	2.7	1-1/2
4	4	ESCAPE ROUTE Closed strongly H A Atzeni · J Size	A Atzeni	J Size	3	130 lb	13.0	1-3/4
5	7	GALLANT HERO A Badel · D J Hall	A Badel	D J Hall	1	120 lb	5.7	3-3/4
6	3	PACKING HURRICANE CP-/B1/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes	C Y Ho	C Fownes	8	131 lb	4.9	4-1/4
7	6	SWAN BAY B K Teetan · W Y So	K Teetan	W Y So	4	125 lb	8.2	6-3/4
8	5	MAJESTIC VICTORY Led early TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz	Y L Chung	A S Cruz	5	123 lb	13.0	7

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick TURIN MASCOT (29.1%) finished 3rd — the winner INTREPID WINNER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	TURIN MASCOT	29.1%	3.43	3	2.7
2	8	INTREPID WINNER	14.6%	6.87	1	10.0
3	5	MAJESTIC VICTORY	11.8%	8.48	8	13.0
4	6	SWAN BAY	10.7%	9.37	7	8.2
5	3	PACKING HURRICANE	10.2%	9.80	6	4.9
6	7	GALLANT HERO	9.8%	10.25	5	5.7
7	4	ESCAPE ROUTE	8.3%	12.08	4	13.0
8	1	NATURAL STORM	5.6%	17.86	2	10.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 100

PLACE

1 24

2 13.5

8 24

QUINELLA

1,8 394.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 47

1,8 120

2,8 48.5

FORECAST

8,1 953

TIERCE

8,1,2 3,124

TRIO

1,2,8 394

FIRST 4

1,2,4,8 914

QUARTET

8,1,2,4 27,304

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 2200m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99