Happy Valley · 2023-12-20 · 19:11
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | INTREPID WINNER Closed strongly B 2.16.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K De Melo · C W Chang | K De Melo | C W Chang | 6 | 10.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 0 | NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B J McDonald · P F Yiu | J McDonald | P F Yiu | 7 | 10.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 0 | TURIN MASCOT Closed strongly SR/TT Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 2 | 2.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | ESCAPE ROUTE Closed strongly H A Atzeni · J Size | A Atzeni | J Size | 3 | 13.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | GALLANT HERO A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 1 | 5.7 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | PACKING HURRICANE CP-/B1/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 8 | 4.9 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | SWAN BAY B K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 4 | 8.2 | 6-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | MAJESTIC VICTORY Led early TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 5 | 13.0 | 7 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-12-20 was Class 3 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. INTREPID WINNER, ridden by K De Melo and trained by C W Chang, won by 1/2, with NATURAL STORM second and TURIN MASCOT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite TURIN MASCOT finished 3rd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | TURIN MASCOT | 29.1% | 3.43 | 3 |
| 2 | 0 | INTREPID WINNER | 14.6% | 6.87 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | MAJESTIC VICTORY | 11.8% | 8.48 | 8 |
| 4 | 0 | SWAN BAY | 10.7% | 9.37 | 7 |
| 5 | 0 | PACKING HURRICANE | 10.2% | 9.80 | 6 |
| 6 | 0 | GALLANT HERO | 9.8% | 10.25 | 5 |
| 7 | 0 | ESCAPE ROUTE | 8.3% | 12.08 | 4 |
| 8 | 0 | NATURAL STORM | 5.6% | 17.86 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 100
PLACE
1 24
2 13.5
8 24
QUINELLA
1,8 394.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 47
1,8 120
2,8 48.5
FORECAST
8,1 953
TIERCE
8,1,2 3,124
TRIO
1,2,8 394
FIRST 4
1,2,4,8 914
QUARTET
8,1,2,4 27,304