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Happy Valley · 2023-12-20 · 13:50

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-12-20 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. TO INFINITY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by N, with RED HARE KING second and SIMPLY MAVERICK third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.0 favourite SIMPLY MAVERICK finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.41.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 TO INFINITY Closed strongly B/TT 1.41.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards 2 7.3 N
2 4 RED HARE KING TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz 9 5.8 N
3 2 SIMPLY MAVERICK Closed strongly A Atzeni · P F Yiu 10 2.0 1/2
4 8 MR ALADDIN B-/CP1 C L Chau · P C Ng 1 11.0 3/4
5 5 MASTER TORNADO B-/PC1/TT K Teetan · W Y So 4 14.0 2-1/4
6 7 NOBLE WIN Closed strongly E/XB A Badel · J Size 12 12.0 3
7 3 ROYAL PRIDE Closed strongly B2/TT2 L Ferraris · C Fownes 6 12.0 4-1/2
8 9 SPARKY STAR Closed strongly B H T Mo · T P Yung 8 89.0 8-3/4
9 11 TACTICAL COMMAND Led early M L Yeung · M Newnham 7 33.0 8-3/4
10 1 SPANGLE FORTUNE CP/TT K C Leung · K L Man 11 94.0 9-1/4
11 12 CHOICERUS B A Hamelin · D J Whyte 3 23.0 10-3/4
12 6 SIR HURRICANE CP1 K H Chan · C H Yip 5 135.0 13-1/2
0 GALLANT CROWN K C Leung · D A Hayes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TO INFINITY2. RED HARE KING+0.05L3. SIMPLY MAVERICK+0.5L4. MR ALADDIN+0.75L5. MASTER TORNADO+2.25L6. NOBLE WIN+3L7. ROYAL PRIDE+4.5L8. SPARKY STAR+8.75L9. TACTICAL COMMAND+8.75L10. SPANGLE FORTUNE+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick TO INFINITY (22.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 TO INFINITY 22.5% 4.45 1
2 2 SIMPLY MAVERICK 18.6% 5.37 3
3 5 MASTER TORNADO 15.2% 6.58 5
4 8 MR ALADDIN 10.8% 9.24 4
5 4 RED HARE KING 10.7% 9.31 2
6 7 NOBLE WIN 5.9% 16.84 6
7 3 ROYAL PRIDE 5.3% 18.80 7
8 12 CHOICERUS 4.3% 23.11 11
9 11 TACTICAL COMMAND 2.3% 44.30 9
10 9 SPARKY STAR 2.1% 47.58 8
11 1 SPANGLE FORTUNE 1.8% 55.17 10
12 6 SIR HURRICANE 0.4% 253.50 12
TO INFINITY — wonSIMPLY MAVERICKMASTER TORNADOMR ALADDINRED HARE KINGNOBLE WINROYAL PRIDECHOICERUSTACTICAL COMMANDSPARKY STARSPANGLE FORTUNESIR HURRICANE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 73.5

PLACE

2 14

4 19.5

10 19.5

QUINELLA

4,10 145.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 31.5

2,10 37

4,10 52

FORECAST

10,4 353

TIERCE

10,4,2 837

TRIO

2,4,10 111

FIRST 4

2,4,8,10 271

QUARTET

10,4,2,8 8,826

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

6,7,8/2,4,10 1,565

5TH DOUBLE

7/4 86

7/10 533.5

TRIPLE TRIO

2,8,11/6,7,8/2,4,10 1,842,015

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,8,11/6,7,8/Any Combination 15,730