Happy Valley · 2023-12-20 · 12:15
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-12-20 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GALLANT VALOUR, ridden by J McDonald and trained by J Richards, won by 1/2, with SUPER EAGLE second and COPARTNER PRANCE third. Victory came as the 1.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | GALLANT VALOUR B/TT 1.10.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · J Richards | J McDonald | J Richards | 3 | 1.9 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 12 | SUPER EAGLE TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 6 | 10.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | COPARTNER PRANCE TT K De Melo · K W Lui | K De Melo | K W Lui | 11 | 22.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 1 | TOP TOP TEA TT K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 4 | 8.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | FLYING PHANTOM H1 Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 7 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | SKY PROPHET B1/TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 9 | 9.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 2 | WINNING HEART B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 2 | 16.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | BALLISTIC WIN C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 8 | 14.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | JOY FOR YOU B M L Yeung · Y S Tsui | M L Yeung | Y S Tsui | 1 | 64.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | E BROTHER B/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 10 | 14.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 9 | STERLING WONGCHOY XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 12 | 69.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | GALLANT GOODY B A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 5 | 64.0 | 11-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | GALLANT VALOUR | 23.9% | 4.18 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | TOP TOP TEA | 13.6% | 7.35 | 4 |
| 3 | 2 | WINNING HEART | 13.5% | 7.39 | 7 |
| 4 | 6 | FLYING PHANTOM | 13.0% | 7.70 | 5 |
| 5 | 12 | SUPER EAGLE | 11.2% | 8.92 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | SKY PROPHET | 6.2% | 16.01 | 6 |
| 7 | 3 | E BROTHER | 6.2% | 16.10 | 10 |
| 8 | 4 | BALLISTIC WIN | 4.8% | 20.81 | 8 |
| 9 | 5 | COPARTNER PRANCE | 2.8% | 36.01 | 3 |
| 10 | 9 | STERLING WONGCHOY | 2.2% | 45.17 | 11 |
| 11 | 11 | JOY FOR YOU | 1.3% | 77.50 | 9 |
| 12 | 10 | GALLANT GOODY | 1.2% | 85.77 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 19.5
PLACE
5 53
8 11
12 27
QUINELLA
8,12 118
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 94
5,12 289
8,12 45.5
FORECAST
8,12 184
TIERCE
8,12,5 2,502
TRIO
5,8,12 734
FIRST 4
1,5,8,12 1,021
QUARTET
8,12,5,1 16,570
All pools (1 more)
2ND DOUBLE
6/8 265.5
6/12 139