Happy Valley · 2023-12-20 · 11:50
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-12-20 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CRYSTAL POWERFUL, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by W K Mo, won by 1-1/4, with CIRCUIT SPLENDOR second and HAPPILY FRIENDS third. The 3.0 favourite FIGHTING STAR finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | CRYSTAL POWERFUL B/H/TT 1.10.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · W K Mo | A Atzeni | W K Mo | 2 | 9.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 11 | CIRCUIT SPLENDOR M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 3 | 8.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 10 | HAPPILY FRIENDS V Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 8 | 14.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | ISLAND SURPRISE B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 10 | 26.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | FIGHTING STAR B K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 1 | 3.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 8 | GREAT DAYS CP/XB A Badel · P C Ng | A Badel | P C Ng | 4 | 21.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | RATTAN WORLD B/TT L Hewitson · J Richards | L Hewitson | J Richards | 6 | 6.7 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | ALLOY KING V A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 9 | 26.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 3 | CHARMING STEED H/P/TT J McDonald · C Fownes | J McDonald | C Fownes | 7 | 5.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 12 | NOIR RIDER B/XB K De Melo · C W Chang | K De Melo | C W Chang | 11 | 27.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 7 | FINGERS CROSSED B/XB1/TT- L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 5 | 18.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 2 | WIND SPEEDER B2 Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 12 | 32.0 | 5-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | HAPPILY FRIENDS | 13.4% | 7.49 | 3 |
| 2 | 9 | FIGHTING STAR | 13.0% | 7.71 | 5 |
| 3 | 3 | CHARMING STEED | 11.2% | 8.95 | 9 |
| 4 | 5 | RATTAN WORLD | 11.1% | 9.01 | 7 |
| 5 | 7 | FINGERS CROSSED | 10.2% | 9.78 | 11 |
| 6 | 6 | CRYSTAL POWERFUL | 9.3% | 10.70 | 1 |
| 7 | 8 | GREAT DAYS | 8.1% | 12.41 | 6 |
| 8 | 12 | NOIR RIDER | 5.9% | 16.83 | 10 |
| 9 | 2 | WIND SPEEDER | 5.9% | 16.88 | 12 |
| 10 | 4 | ISLAND SURPRISE | 5.3% | 18.85 | 4 |
| 11 | 11 | CIRCUIT SPLENDOR | 3.4% | 29.00 | 2 |
| 12 | 1 | ALLOY KING | 3.2% | 31.60 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 91.5
PLACE
6 29
10 36.5
11 32
QUINELLA
6,11 480.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,10 192
6,11 154
10,11 198
FORECAST
6,11 988
TIERCE
6,11,10 13,600
TRIO
6,10,11 2,270
FIRST 4
4,6,10,11 8,245
QUARTET
6,11,10,4 169,141
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
8/6 723
8/11 161.5
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,8/6,10,11 166,692