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Happy Valley · 2023-12-20 · 21:11

Race 5

Class 2 GOOD 1650m Course C 8 runners

Result

Official · 1.41.23
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 HAPPY TOGETHER Closed strongly H/TT 1.41.23 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · F C Lor 5 8.3 3/4
2 0 GALAXY WITNESS Closed strongly C Y Ho · C Fownes 7 8.2 3/4
3 0 CHILL CHIBI TT C L Chau · C S Shum 8 1.8 2
4 0 SPIRITED EXPRESS Closed strongly B/TT J McDonald · P F Yiu 4 12.0 2-1/2
5 0 DROMBEG BANNER Led early A Atzeni · P C Ng 3 8.9 3
6 0 FIND MY LOVE Closed strongly H/TT M L Yeung · K L Man 6 22.0 3-1/4
7 0 RISING FROM ASHES B/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui 2 6.7 3-1/4
8 0 KEEFY TT K C Leung · F C Lor 1 32.0 3-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-12-20 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY TOGETHER, ridden by A Badel and trained by F C Lor, won by 3/4, with GALAXY WITNESS second and CHILL CHIBI third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.8 favourite CHILL CHIBI finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAPPY TOGETHER—2. GALAXY WITNESS+0.75L3. CHILL CHIBI+2L4. SPIRITED EXPRESS+2.5L5. DROMBEG BANNER+3L6. FIND MY LOVE+3.25L7. RISING FROM ASHES+3.25L8. KEEFY+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick CHILL CHIBI (42.8%) finished 3rd — the winner HAPPY TOGETHER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 CHILL CHIBI 42.8% 2.34 3
2 0 HAPPY TOGETHER 15.8% 6.32 1
3 0 DROMBEG BANNER 14.4% 6.94 5
4 0 GALAXY WITNESS 10.3% 9.75 2
5 0 RISING FROM ASHES 8.7% 11.53 7
6 0 SPIRITED EXPRESS 3.6% 28.11 4
7 0 FIND MY LOVE 2.7% 37.05 6
8 0 KEEFY 1.8% 56.40 8
CHILL CHIBIHAPPY TOGETHER — wonDROMBEG BANNERGALAXY WITNESSRISING FROM ASHESSPIRITED EXPRESSFIND MY LOVEKEEFY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 83.5

PLACE

6 11

7 17.5

8 21.5

QUINELLA

7,8 279

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 25

6,8 26

7,8 62.5

FORECAST

7,8 546

TIERCE

7,8,6 1,086

TRIO

6,7,8 104

FIRST 4

3,6,7,8 162

QUARTET

7,8,6,3 7,679

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

8/11/7 5,073

8/11/8 1,637

4TH DOUBLE

11/7 1,424.5

11/8 387