Sha Tin · 2024-04-03 · 16:33
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-03 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. MUST GO, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by 1-3/4, with VANTASTIC CHOICE second and VALHALLA third. The 3.7 favourite ACA POWER finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | MUST GO E/PC/TT 1.09.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 3 | 5.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 5 | VANTASTIC CHOICE E C W Wong · C H Yip | E C W Wong | C H Yip | 1 | 9.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 1 | VALHALLA XB/TT K De Melo · C Fownes | K De Melo | C Fownes | 7 | 8.9 | 3 |
| 4 | 12 | COOL BLUE V/TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 8 | 4.2 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | MAGIC SUPREME B/TT L Hewitson · K L Man | L Hewitson | K L Man | 2 | 14.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | STRIVE FOR GLORY P/TT L Ferraris · W Y So | L Ferraris | W Y So | 11 | 16.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 11 | ACA POWER CP A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 9 | 3.7 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | SERGEANT PEPPER H Bowman · Y S Tsui | H Bowman | Y S Tsui | 5 | 9.6 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 4 | SPICY SPANGLE Y L Chung · P C Ng | Y L Chung | P C Ng | 10 | 23.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | FIGHTING MAN XB/TT K C Leung · K W Lui | K C Leung | K W Lui | 6 | 100.0 | 13-1/2 |
| 11 | 9 | HICKORY VICTORY B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 4 | 140.0 | 28 |
| — | 0 | SOLAR UP M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | — | — | — |
| — | 10 | HINOKAMI KAGURA Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | VANTASTIC CHOICE | 24.7% | 4.05 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | MUST GO | 17.7% | 5.65 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | SERGEANT PEPPER | 15.3% | 6.54 | 8 |
| 4 | 1 | VALHALLA | 10.3% | 9.72 | 3 |
| 5 | 11 | ACA POWER | 10.2% | 9.83 | 7 |
| 6 | 12 | COOL BLUE | 9.7% | 10.28 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | SPICY SPANGLE | 4.6% | 21.89 | 9 |
| 8 | 7 | STRIVE FOR GLORY | 3.4% | 29.68 | 6 |
| 9 | 2 | MAGIC SUPREME | 2.8% | 35.16 | 5 |
| 10 | 9 | HICKORY VICTORY | 0.7% | 144.73 | 11 |
| 11 | 8 | FIGHTING MAN | 0.7% | 148.36 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 51
PLACE
1 24.5
3 20
5 28.5
QUINELLA
3,5 263.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 77
1,5 141.5
3,5 92
FORECAST
3,5 466
TIERCE
3,5,1 2,794
TRIO
1,3,5 688
FIRST 4
1,3,5,12 764
QUARTET
3,5,1,12 14,075
All pools (1 more)
2ND DOUBLE
10/3 216
10/5 32