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Sha Tin · 2024-04-03 · 16:33

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 13 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-03 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. M UNICORN, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by C Fownes, won by SH, with TURIN MASCOT second and ADEFILL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite ADEFILL finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.37.75
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 M UNICORN Closed strongly H/P/TT 1.37.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · C Fownes 13 19.0 SH
2 7 TURIN MASCOT Closed strongly PC/TT K Teetan · P C Ng 2 6.8 SH
3 4 ADEFILL Closed strongly B H Bowman · P F Yiu 9 3.9 SH
4 5 BERLIN TANGO Closed strongly B/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 8 10.0 1-1/4
5 3 APACHE PASS B-/XB/BO2 Z Purton · P C Ng 7 18.0 1-1/2
6 6 YELLOWFIN Led early XB L Hewitson · K W Lui 10 6.3 2
7 8 SO WE JOY Closed strongly H/TT K C Leung · C W Chang 5 11.0 3-1/4
8 9 TOURBILLON PRINCE TT A Badel · T P Yung 4 11.0 6
9 11 FIERY DIAMOND TT K De Melo · T P Yung 6 25.0 6-1/4
10 1 NORDIC DRAGON TT E C W Wong · C S Shum 11 54.0 6-1/2
11 13 MASSIVE ACTION SR/V Y L Chung · F C Lor 3 8.6 8
12 2 ALACRITY XB/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 12 24.0 9-1/4
13 10 MAJESTIC COLOUR B/TT2 L Ferraris · M Newnham 1 14.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. M UNICORN2. TURIN MASCOT+0.1L3. ADEFILL+0.1L4. BERLIN TANGO+1.25L5. APACHE PASS+1.5L6. YELLOWFIN+2L7. SO WE JOY+3.25L8. TOURBILLON PRINCE+6L9. FIERY DIAMOND+6.25L10. NORDIC DRAGON+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick APACHE PASS (20.0%) finished 5th — the winner M UNICORN was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 APACHE PASS 20.0% 5.00 5
2 4 ADEFILL 18.0% 5.56 3
3 9 TOURBILLON PRINCE 10.9% 9.15 8
4 6 YELLOWFIN 10.7% 9.33 6
5 7 TURIN MASCOT 6.9% 14.49 2
6 13 MASSIVE ACTION 5.6% 17.86 11
7 1 NORDIC DRAGON 4.8% 20.87 10
8 5 BERLIN TANGO 4.4% 22.48 4
9 12 M UNICORN 4.1% 24.10 1
10 2 ALACRITY 4.0% 24.70 12
11 8 SO WE JOY 3.7% 26.99 7
12 10 MAJESTIC COLOUR 3.5% 28.47 13
13 11 FIERY DIAMOND 3.2% 31.43 9
APACHE PASSADEFILLTOURBILLON PRINCEYELLOWFINTURIN MASCOTMASSIVE ACTIONNORDIC DRAGONBERLIN TANGOM UNICORN — wonALACRITYSO WE JOYMAJESTIC COLOURFIERY DIAMOND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 195.5

PLACE

4 17.5

7 21

12 54

QUINELLA

7,12 727.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 55

4,12 140

7,12 214.5

FORECAST

12,7 1,478

TIERCE

12,7,4 8,022

TRIO

4,7,12 740

FIRST 4

4,5,7,12 2,623

QUARTET

12,7,4,5 86,298

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

5/12/7 1,681

5/12/12 21,470

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,9,12/4,7,12 2,403,194

7TH DOUBLE

12/7 598.5

12/12 5,211

SIX UP

3/1/4/5/12/12 2,272,054

3,5/1,2/4,7/2,5/2,12/7,12 16,628

8 [C Fownes]

3 [K Teetan]