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Sha Tin · 2024-04-03 · 16:33

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-03 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. FOREVER FOLKS, ridden by B Thompson and trained by C W Chang, won by 1, with GALVANIC second and TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.8 favourite MISSION BRAVO finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.39.07
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B 1.39.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Thompson · C W Chang 5 43.0 1
2 2 GALVANIC Closed strongly TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 4 7.4 1
3 9 TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C S Shum 10 12.0 1-1/4
4 3 VIVA HUNTER Closed strongly TT M F Poon · K L Man 13 31.0 2-1/4
5 11 STARSHIP EIGHTY Closed strongly PC/TT B Avdulla · P C Ng 12 8.8 2-3/4
6 6 PANDA LEGEND TT K De Melo · W Y So 3 9.3 3-1/4
7 7 CORDYCEPS ONE Y L Chung · C H Yip 9 13.0 3-3/4
8 8 FAST VICTORY Closed strongly B H Bowman · D A Hayes 6 6.9 3-3/4
9 13 SUN OF MAKFI Closed strongly B/XB A Badel · D J Hall 7 6.9 4
10 10 MAYHEM H M L Yeung · F C Lor 11 11.0 5-1/4
11 5 MISSION BRAVO Closed strongly B L Ferraris · M Newnham 2 4.8 6
12 1 HAKKA RADIANCE H-/TT L Hewitson · W K Mo 8 20.0 7
13 14 THE CONCENTRATION Led early P H T Mo · P F Yiu 1 155.0 15-3/4
14 4 I KEEP WINNING P-/B1/H1 K H Chan · T P Yung 14 128.0 42-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FOREVER FOLKS2. GALVANIC+1L3. TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR+1.25L4. VIVA HUNTER+2.25L5. STARSHIP EIGHTY+2.75L6. PANDA LEGEND+3.25L7. CORDYCEPS ONE+3.75L8. FAST VICTORY+3.75L9. SUN OF MAKFI+4L10. MAYHEM+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR (14.4%) finished 3rd — the winner FOREVER FOLKS was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR 14.4% 6.94 3
2 2 GALVANIC 13.6% 7.33 2
3 5 MISSION BRAVO 13.4% 7.44 11
4 8 FAST VICTORY 9.3% 10.75 8
5 6 PANDA LEGEND 8.8% 11.35 6
6 13 SUN OF MAKFI 7.6% 13.18 9
7 11 STARSHIP EIGHTY 7.5% 13.33 5
8 7 CORDYCEPS ONE 7.3% 13.65 7
9 10 MAYHEM 5.6% 17.87 10
10 3 VIVA HUNTER 5.2% 19.35 4
11 12 FOREVER FOLKS 4.1% 24.63 1
12 14 THE CONCENTRATION 1.8% 55.96 13
13 1 HAKKA RADIANCE 0.7% 138.45 12
14 4 I KEEP WINNING 0.6% 156.37 14
TRIUMPHANT WARRIORGALVANICMISSION BRAVOFAST VICTORYPANDA LEGENDSUN OF MAKFISTARSHIP EIGHTYCORDYCEPS ONEMAYHEMVIVA HUNTERFOREVER FOLKS — wonTHE CONCENTRATIONHAKKA RADIANCEI KEEP WINNING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 437.5

PLACE

2 27

9 38

12 104

QUINELLA

2,12 1,551

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 199.5

2,12 564

9,12 838.5

FORECAST

12,2 4,695

TIERCE

12,2,9 70,292

TRIO

2,9,12 7,676

FIRST 4

2,3,9,12 30,532

QUARTET

12,2,9,3 793,843

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

5/2 36.5

5/12 998