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Sha Tin · 2024-04-03 · 16:33

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-03 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. MONTA FRUTTA, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by SH, with SOLID SHALAA second and ROBOT KNIGHT third. The 4.1 favourite DIAMOND FLARE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 MONTA FRUTTA H/TT 1.09.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 10.0 SH
2 2 SOLID SHALAA B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 5 4.9 SH
3 7 ROBOT KNIGHT L Ferraris · T P Yung 9 15.0 1/2
4 12 NEW POWER H M L Yeung · C W Chang 7 13.0 2-1/4
5 4 DIAMOND FLARE B/TT E C W Wong · M Newnham 1 4.1 3
6 10 HIGH RISE POWER K De Melo · K W Lui 6 6.4 3-1/2
7 5 JOLLY COMPANION B-/XB-/CP1/TT1 B Avdulla · K L Man 2 16.0 4-1/4
8 3 FLYING DRAGON XB H Bowman · C H Yip 8 20.0 5-1/4
9 9 BEAUTY DESTINY CP/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 12 4.2 6-1/4
10 6 RACINGRACE XB1 A Badel · D J Hall 11 51.0 6-1/2
11 11 MANYTHANKS FOREVER CP/TT B Thompson · J Richards 10 91.0 9-3/4
12 8 SAVVY ELEGANCE B-/H/P1/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte 4 183.0 12

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MONTA FRUTTA2. SOLID SHALAA+0.1L3. ROBOT KNIGHT+0.5L4. NEW POWER+2.25L5. DIAMOND FLARE+3L6. HIGH RISE POWER+3.5L7. JOLLY COMPANION+4.25L8. FLYING DRAGON+5.25L9. BEAUTY DESTINY+6.25L10. RACINGRACE+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick DIAMOND FLARE (20.1%) finished 5th — the winner MONTA FRUTTA was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 DIAMOND FLARE 20.1% 4.97 5
2 2 SOLID SHALAA 17.7% 5.66 2
3 9 BEAUTY DESTINY 10.7% 9.33 9
4 3 FLYING DRAGON 10.2% 9.80 8
5 12 NEW POWER 8.9% 11.29 4
6 5 JOLLY COMPANION 7.6% 13.22 7
7 10 HIGH RISE POWER 7.3% 13.67 6
8 1 MONTA FRUTTA 5.4% 18.37 1
9 6 RACINGRACE 5.0% 19.91 10
10 7 ROBOT KNIGHT 4.2% 23.76 3
11 11 MANYTHANKS FOREVER 2.3% 43.45 11
12 8 SAVVY ELEGANCE 0.6% 165.36 12
DIAMOND FLARESOLID SHALAABEAUTY DESTINYFLYING DRAGONNEW POWERJOLLY COMPANIONHIGH RISE POWERMONTA FRUTTA — wonRACINGRACEROBOT KNIGHTMANYTHANKS FOREVERSAVVY ELEGANCE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 107.5

PLACE

1 32

2 17.5

7 36

QUINELLA

1,2 217

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 73.5

1,7 288

2,7 121.5

FORECAST

1,2 488

TIERCE

1,2,7 9,709

TRIO

1,2,7 1,423

FIRST 4

1,2,7,12 2,887

QUARTET

1,2,7,12 61,043

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,5/1,2,7 80,147

3RD DOUBLE

3/1 330

3/2 50