Sha Tin · 2024-04-03 · 16:33

Race 5

Class 2 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 8 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-03 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. BUNDLE OF CHARM, ridden by A Badel and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with WONDER KIT second and GUMMY GUMMY third. The 1.7 favourite GUMMY GUMMY finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.08.36

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	4	BUNDLE OF CHARM P2 1.08.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	3	131 lb	6.4	1-1/4
2	7	WONDER KIT B L Hewitson · K W Lui	L Hewitson	K W Lui	7	123 lb	11.0	1-1/4
3	5	GUMMY GUMMY B Z Purton · T P Yung	Z Purton	T P Yung	4	125 lb	1.7	2
4	8	MAGNIAC V/TT Y L Chung · J Richards	Y L Chung	J Richards	1	115 lb	4.6	4
5	1	SEASONS WIT B/TT A Hamelin · J Richards	A Hamelin	J Richards	5	135 lb	27.0	4-1/2
6	9	WINNING ICEY B/TT K Teetan · C Fownes	K Teetan	C Fownes	2	120 lb	12.0	4-3/4
7	3	PING HAI GALAXY B Avdulla · J Size	B Avdulla	J Size	6	132 lb	19.0	5-3/4
8	6	XPONENTIAL B/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte	L Ferraris	D J Whyte	8	125 lb	39.0	12-3/4
—	2	KURPANY E C W Wong · C Fownes	E C W Wong	C Fownes	—	124 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick GUMMY GUMMY (28.2%) finished 3rd — the winner BUNDLE OF CHARM was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	5	GUMMY GUMMY	28.2%	3.54	3	1.7
2	8	MAGNIAC	22.7%	4.41	4	4.6
3	7	WONDER KIT	15.4%	6.50	2	11.0
4	9	WINNING ICEY	14.1%	7.09	6	12.0
5	4	BUNDLE OF CHARM	8.4%	11.86	1	6.4
6	3	PING HAI GALAXY	4.3%	23.05	7	19.0
7	6	XPONENTIAL	4.0%	25.12	8	39.0
8	1	SEASONS WIT	2.9%	34.78	5	27.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 64

PLACE

4 15.5

5 11.5

7 22.5

QUINELLA

4,7 297

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 23

4,7 73.5

5,7 35

FORECAST

4,7 566

TIERCE

4,7,5 1,117

TRIO

4,5,7 95

FIRST 4

4,5,7,8 61

QUARTET

4,7,5,8 2,752

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

3/1/4 2,098

3/1/7 920

4TH DOUBLE

1/4 398.5

1/7 173.5

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