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Happy Valley · 2024-11-13 · 10:45

Race 1

Class 5 2200m Course B 9 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-13 was Class 5 over 2200m. KINGLY DEMEANOR, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by A S Cruz, won by HD, with FURY AND GOLD second and PALACE PAL third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 3.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.16.78
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 KINGLY DEMEANOR Wire to wire TT 2.16.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · A S Cruz 3 3.8 HD
2 6 FURY AND GOLD Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · C H Yip 9 10.0 HD
3 1 PALACE PAL Closed strongly V Z Purton · D J Hall 6 7.2 1/2
4 8 GOLDEN FAIRY C Y Ho · W Y So 5 6.6 2-1/4
5 3 CHATEAU LE PECHE B M F Poon · K H Ting 8 4.7 2-3/4
6 2 SUPER HONG KONG B H Bowman · C H Yip 1 7.6 3-1/2
7 5 NICE BIRDIE TT C L Chau · C S Shum 2 7.9 5
8 9 SPLENDID STAR Closed strongly L Hewitson · D J Whyte 7 12.0 7
9 7 TIGER AND GOLD B Y L Chung · C H Yip 4 79.0 12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KINGLY DEMEANOR2. FURY AND GOLD+0.2L3. PALACE PAL+0.5L4. GOLDEN FAIRY+2.25L5. CHATEAU LE PECHE+2.75L6. SUPER HONG KONG+3.5L7. NICE BIRDIE+5L8. SPLENDID STAR+7L9. TIGER AND GOLD+12.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick NICE BIRDIE (20.4%) finished 7th — the winner KINGLY DEMEANOR was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 NICE BIRDIE 20.4% 4.89 7
2 3 CHATEAU LE PECHE 20.1% 4.98 5
3 4 KINGLY DEMEANOR 17.1% 5.86 1
4 2 SUPER HONG KONG 12.2% 8.22 6
5 8 GOLDEN FAIRY 10.1% 9.92 4
6 1 PALACE PAL 7.7% 13.02 3
7 6 FURY AND GOLD 5.5% 18.34 2
8 9 SPLENDID STAR 5.3% 18.72 8
9 7 TIGER AND GOLD 1.7% 59.53 9
NICE BIRDIECHATEAU LE PECHEKINGLY DEMEANOR — wonSUPER HONG KONGGOLDEN FAIRYPALACE PALFURY AND GOLDSPLENDID STARTIGER AND GOLD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 38

PLACE

1 24

4 15.5

6 33.5

QUINELLA

4,6 224

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 56

1,6 115.5

4,6 78

FORECAST

4,6 386

TIERCE

4,6,1 2,950

TRIO

1,4,6 456

FIRST 4

1,4,6,8 660

QUARTET

4,6,1,8 14,381