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Happy Valley · 2024-11-13 · 11:45

Race 3

Class 4 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-13 was Class 4 over 1650m. HAPPY DAILY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C H Yip, won by 1-3/4, with LUCKY BANNER second and SUPER BABY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite HAKKA RADIANCE finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.39.90
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 HAPPY DAILY Closed strongly TT 1.39.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C H Yip 6 4.1 1-3/4
2 7 LUCKY BANNER Led early TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 4 8.0 1-3/4
3 8 SUPER BABY B-/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 5 10.0 2-1/4
4 2 SMART CITY Closed strongly CP/TT M F Poon · P F Yiu 10 43.0 2-1/4
5 10 ON THE LASH Closed strongly B/XB/TT L Hewitson · P C Ng 2 15.0 2-1/2
6 6 HAKKA RADIANCE CP-/B1/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 3 2.9 3-1/2
7 12 YOUTH POWER Closed strongly B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 9 5.9 3-3/4
8 3 HAPPY AGAIN B1 M Chadwick · W K Mo 8 54.0 4-1/4
9 11 SKYEY BLUE Closed strongly TT Y L Chung · C W Chang 12 130.0 5
10 9 DARCI JOY Closed strongly B/TT A Atzeni · D Eustace 11 14.0 5-1/2
11 1 MASSIVE ACTION SR/V K C Leung · F C Lor 1 24.0 5-1/2
12 5 THUNDERBOLTAURUS B B Thompson · D J Hall 7 171.0 11-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAPPY DAILY2. LUCKY BANNER+1.75L3. SUPER BABY+2.25L4. SMART CITY+2.25L5. ON THE LASH+2.5L6. HAKKA RADIANCE+3.5L7. YOUTH POWER+3.75L8. HAPPY AGAIN+4.25L9. SKYEY BLUE+5L10. DARCI JOY+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick HAKKA RADIANCE (31.8%) finished 6th — the winner HAPPY DAILY was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 HAKKA RADIANCE 31.8% 3.14 6
2 7 LUCKY BANNER 27.4% 3.65 2
3 12 YOUTH POWER 14.1% 7.11 7
4 8 SUPER BABY 7.9% 12.59 3
5 4 HAPPY DAILY 5.7% 17.50 1
6 9 DARCI JOY 2.7% 36.96 10
7 1 MASSIVE ACTION 2.7% 37.68 11
8 3 HAPPY AGAIN 2.6% 38.00 8
9 2 SMART CITY 2.0% 50.08 4
10 11 SKYEY BLUE 1.6% 63.29 9
11 10 ON THE LASH 1.0% 101.15 5
12 5 THUNDERBOLTAURUS B 0.5% 209.38 12
HAKKA RADIANCELUCKY BANNERYOUTH POWERSUPER BABYHAPPY DAILY — wonDARCI JOYMASSIVE ACTIONHAPPY AGAINSMART CITYSKYEY BLUEON THE LASHTHUNDERBOLTAURUS B

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 41

PLACE

4 15

7 22

8 29

QUINELLA

4,7 138.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 49

4,8 64

7,8 103.5

FORECAST

4,7 227

TIERCE

4,7,8 1,433

TRIO

4,7,8 345

FIRST 4

2,4,7,8 1,843

QUARTET

4,7,8,2 22,012

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,11/4,7,8 28,834

2ND DOUBLE

4/4 129.5

4/7 60.5