Happy Valley · 2024-11-13 · 11:15
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-13 was Class 4 over 1650m. LUCKY TOUCH, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by 1-1/4, with FIREFOOT second and VIVA CHALEUR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | LUCKY TOUCH Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 7 | 2.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 11 | FIREFOOT Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 2 | 14.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 2 | VIVA CHALEUR Closed strongly TT L Ferraris · P C Ng | L Ferraris | P C Ng | 1 | 6.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 1 | ESCAPE ROUTE Closed strongly H A Atzeni · J Size | A Atzeni | J Size | 4 | 6.5 | 4 |
| 5 | 12 | THE AZURE Led early K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 8 | 5.6 | 4 |
| 6 | 9 | AMAZING AWARD Closed strongly CP/TT B Thompson · D Eustace | B Thompson | D Eustace | 6 | 56.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | TRADITION Closed strongly Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 11 | 28.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 5 | DURHAM STAR B/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 3 | 18.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 3 | D STAR B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 5 | 6.3 | 6 |
| 10 | 8 | SUPER BEN Closed strongly B- K De Melo · D J Hall | K De Melo | D J Hall | 12 | 149.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 7 | SOLAR GOGO B2 C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 10 | 100.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | SUPER TREASURE CP H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 9 | 193.0 | 12-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | LUCKY TOUCH | 27.6% | 3.62 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | D STAR | 16.2% | 6.16 | 9 |
| 3 | 5 | DURHAM STAR | 12.5% | 8.03 | 8 |
| 4 | 12 | THE AZURE | 11.5% | 8.71 | 5 |
| 5 | 2 | VIVA CHALEUR | 10.5% | 9.57 | 3 |
| 6 | 1 | ESCAPE ROUTE | 9.1% | 11.00 | 4 |
| 7 | 10 | TRADITION | 5.0% | 20.03 | 7 |
| 8 | 7 | SOLAR GOGO | 2.5% | 40.79 | 11 |
| 9 | 9 | AMAZING AWARD | 2.3% | 42.84 | 6 |
| 10 | 11 | FIREFOOT | 1.3% | 75.71 | 2 |
| 11 | 8 | SUPER BEN | 0.8% | 123.56 | 10 |
| 12 | 6 | SUPER TREASURE | 0.8% | 128.00 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 28
PLACE
2 22
4 13.5
11 36.5
QUINELLA
4,11 209.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 41
2,11 101
4,11 77
FORECAST
4,11 360
TIERCE
4,11,2 2,031
TRIO
2,4,11 517
FIRST 4
1,2,4,11 726
QUARTET
4,11,2,1 15,784
All pools (1 more)
1ST DOUBLE
4/4 153
4/11 212.5