Happy Valley · 2024-11-13 · 12:15
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-13 was Class 4 over 1000m. CHAMPION METHOD, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with LEAN MASTER second and MA COMET third. The 3.0 favourite LEAN MASTER finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | CHAMPION METHOD TT 0.57.23 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · C S Shum | A Atzeni | C S Shum | 5 | 3.7 | N |
| 2 | 2 | LEAN MASTER B/TT E C W Wong · C H Yip | E C W Wong | C H Yip | 1 | 3.0 | N |
| 3 | 1 | MA COMET CP/TT Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 4 | 7.9 | N |
| 4 | 11 | CIRCUIT SEVEN B/TT M F Poon · W K Mo | M F Poon | W K Mo | 11 | 16.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 12 | HAPPY HORSE H/P/TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 8 | 57.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | CIRCUS REEL B Thompson · D J Hall | B Thompson | D J Hall | 9 | 127.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 7 | NOTTHESILLYONE TT1 L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 12 | 52.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | HAPPY TANGO B Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 6 | 19.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | BRAVE OF FRIENDS CP1/XB1 H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 7 | 94.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 4 | VICTORYTHIRTYTHREE H/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 3 | 12.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | SILVER SPURS SR/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 2 | 8.9 | 3-1/4 |
| 12 | 8 | SIGHT HAPPY CP B Avdulla · D A Hayes | B Avdulla | D A Hayes | 10 | 7.6 | 3-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | MA COMET | 22.2% | 4.51 | 3 |
| 2 | 2 | LEAN MASTER | 18.8% | 5.32 | 2 |
| 3 | 9 | SILVER SPURS | 16.0% | 6.25 | 10 |
| 4 | 8 | SIGHT HAPPY | 8.9% | 11.18 | 12 |
| 5 | 11 | CIRCUIT SEVEN | 8.1% | 12.37 | 4 |
| 6 | 4 | VICTORYTHIRTYTHREE | 7.0% | 14.31 | 10 |
| 7 | 10 | CHAMPION METHOD | 6.4% | 15.64 | 1 |
| 8 | 6 | HAPPY TANGO | 4.7% | 21.13 | 8 |
| 9 | 7 | NOTTHESILLYONE | 2.7% | 37.23 | 7 |
| 10 | 12 | HAPPY HORSE | 2.6% | 38.62 | 5 |
| 11 | 3 | BRAVE OF FRIENDS | 1.6% | 62.80 | 9 |
| 12 | 5 | CIRCUS REEL | 1.0% | 96.50 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 37
PLACE
1 24
2 15
10 13.5
QUINELLA
2,10 56
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 48.5
1,10 56.5
2,10 23.5
FORECAST
10,2 130
TIERCE
10,2,1 802
TRIO
1,2,10 151
FIRST 4
1,2,10,11 542
QUARTET
10,2,1,11 10,565
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
4/2 16.5
4/10 269.5