Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2024-11-13 · 13:15

Race 6

Class 4 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-13 was Class 4 over 1200m. CIRCUIT DUFFY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with TOP TIME second and YOUNG HORIZON third. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.06
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 CIRCUIT DUFFY 1.10.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 1 2.4 SH
2 10 TOP TIME K De Melo · W Y So 10 49.0 SH
3 11 YOUNG HORIZON CP M L Yeung · D A Hayes 9 10.0 N
4 3 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 11 6.6 1-3/4
5 5 TEAM HAPPY B A Atzeni · P C Ng 3 5.1 3
6 2 KOKUSHI MUSOU B/TT M Chadwick · C Fownes 4 37.0 3-1/4
7 6 ACE POWER B/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte 7 28.0 4-1/4
8 9 LAKESHORE HERO B M F Poon · D J Hall 2 10.0 4-1/2
9 4 THE PERFECT MATCH B/TT H Bowman · C S Shum 5 6.4 4-3/4
10 8 COSMIC SPURS PC1/TT1 B Thompson · J Size 12 63.0 5-1/4
11 1 SERGEANT PEPPER E C W Wong · Y S Tsui 8 77.0 7-1/4
12 12 SUPREME WINNER Y L Chung · C H Yip 6 114.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CIRCUIT DUFFY2. TOP TIME+0.1L3. YOUNG HORIZON+0.05L4. CALIFORNIA DEEPLY+1.75L5. TEAM HAPPY+3L6. KOKUSHI MUSOU+3.25L7. ACE POWER+4.25L8. LAKESHORE HERO+4.5L9. THE PERFECT MATCH+4.75L10. COSMIC SPURS+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick CIRCUIT DUFFY (24.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 CIRCUIT DUFFY 24.9% 4.02 1
2 5 TEAM HAPPY 15.7% 6.37 5
3 11 YOUNG HORIZON 14.0% 7.16 3
4 4 THE PERFECT MATCH 12.3% 8.13 9
5 9 LAKESHORE HERO 8.8% 11.36 8
6 2 KOKUSHI MUSOU 8.4% 11.97 6
7 3 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY 8.0% 12.56 4
8 10 TOP TIME 1.9% 51.91 2
9 8 COSMIC SPURS 1.8% 54.81 10
10 1 SERGEANT PEPPER 1.8% 57.12 11
11 6 ACE POWER 1.5% 64.81 7
12 12 SUPREME WINNER 1.0% 102.32 12
CIRCUIT DUFFY — wonTEAM HAPPYYOUNG HORIZONTHE PERFECT MATCHLAKESHORE HEROKOKUSHI MUSOUCALIFORNIA DEEPLYTOP TIMECOSMIC SPURSSERGEANT PEPPERACE POWERSUPREME WINNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 24.5

PLACE

7 12

10 101

11 27

QUINELLA

7,10 765.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,10 303

7,11 47

10,11 568

FORECAST

7,10 957

TIERCE

7,10,11 5,181

TRIO

7,10,11 2,097

FIRST 4

3,7,10,11 1,995

QUARTET

7,10,11,3 36,785

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

7/7 206

7/10 421