Sha Tin · 2024-12-22 · 06:45
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-22 was Class 5 over 1600m. FIRE BALL, ridden by C L Chau and trained by C H Yip, won by HD, with CERVIN second and SMASHING EXPRESS third. The winner led throughout. The 3.1 favourite SPECIAL HEDGE finished 11th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | FIRE BALL Wire to wire CP 1.35.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · C H Yip | C L Chau | C H Yip | 9 | 14.0 | HD |
| 2 | 7 | CERVIN Closed strongly TT K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 14 | 18.0 | HD |
| 3 | 1 | SMASHING EXPRESS Closed strongly E H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 13 | 20.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 11 | LAPRAS CP-/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 5 | 65.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 13 | WINNING SEVEN Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 1 | 18.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | CHILLI BABA Closed strongly B/TT- A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 4 | 13.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | KASA PAPA Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 3 | 10.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | CHARMANDER Closed strongly V J McDonald · D J Hall | J McDonald | D J Hall | 6 | 6.9 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly XB L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 11 | 16.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 8 | ON THE LASH B-/XB/V1/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 8 | 25.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 2 | SPECIAL HEDGE B-/V1/TT Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 10 | 3.1 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 14 | LEATHER MASTER XB-/V M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 12 | 32.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 13 | 6 | CASA LEGEND P/TT M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 7 | 6.8 | 6-1/4 |
| 14 | 4 | GOLD TACK B A Pouchin · D J Hall | A Pouchin | D J Hall | 2 | 16.0 | 7 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SPECIAL HEDGE | 17.3% | 5.79 | 11 |
| 2 | 3 | CHARMANDER | 14.2% | 7.05 | 8 |
| 3 | 5 | KASA PAPA | 8.6% | 11.57 | 7 |
| 4 | 4 | GOLD TACK | 8.4% | 11.86 | 14 |
| 5 | 13 | WINNING SEVEN | 7.9% | 12.66 | 5 |
| 6 | 10 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 7.1% | 14.00 | 9 |
| 7 | 1 | SMASHING EXPRESS | 6.4% | 15.61 | 3 |
| 8 | 8 | ON THE LASH | 6.3% | 15.99 | 10 |
| 9 | 6 | CASA LEGEND | 5.6% | 17.78 | 13 |
| 10 | 7 | CERVIN | 5.3% | 18.83 | 2 |
| 11 | 12 | FIRE BALL | 5.0% | 20.06 | 1 |
| 12 | 9 | CHILLI BABA | 3.6% | 27.93 | 6 |
| 13 | 14 | LEATHER MASTER | 2.2% | 45.22 | 12 |
| 14 | 11 | LAPRAS | 2.0% | 49.00 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 148
PLACE
1 66
7 54.5
12 49
QUINELLA
7,12 1,542.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,7 592.5
1,12 526
7,12 464.5
FORECAST
12,7 2,778
TIERCE
12,7,1 49,648
TRIO
1,7,12 11,695
FIRST 4
1,7,11,12 100,049
QUARTET
12,7,1,11 —