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Sha Tin · 2024-12-22 · 05:20

Race 2

Class 4 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-22 was Class 4 over 1400m. KA YING ATTACK, ridden by M F Poon and trained by D J Hall, won by HD, with ETALON OR second and JUNEAU PRIDE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite ETALON OR finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.22.22
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 KA YING ATTACK Closed strongly 1.22.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · D J Hall 10 7.2 HD
2 3 ETALON OR Closed strongly B A Badel · P F Yiu 14 3.7 HD
3 2 JUNEAU PRIDE B Avdulla · J Size 13 4.7 N
4 13 WORLD HERO Led early CP1 A Pouchin · D A Hayes 7 29.0 1-3/4
5 14 CALIFORNIA MOXIE Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 4.8 2-1/2
6 8 SOMELOVEFROMABOVE Closed strongly XB H Bowman · C Fownes 4 36.0 3-3/4
7 9 STORM RUNNER Closed strongly B1 K C Leung · P C Ng 5 97.0 3-3/4
8 4 JOLLY JUMPER Closed strongly H Bentley · T P Yung 9 100.0 4-1/4
9 12 CASHISCASH CP2/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte 3 51.0 4-3/4
10 6 MISSION STRIKE Closed strongly L Ferraris · M Newnham 8 18.0 5
11 5 LUCKY STATEMENT TT1 Z Purton · K L Man 1 6.7 5-1/4
12 11 THE AUSPICIOUS Closed strongly B-/H1 M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 2 84.0 5-1/4
13 7 PATCH OF LUCKY B/TT M Chadwick · K H Ting 12 74.0 7
14 10 BEAR CHAMP H A Atzeni · C W Chang 11 18.0 22

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KA YING ATTACK2. ETALON OR+0.2L3. JUNEAU PRIDE+0.05L4. WORLD HERO+1.75L5. CALIFORNIA MOXIE+2.5L6. SOMELOVEFROMABOVE+3.75L7. STORM RUNNER+3.75L8. JOLLY JUMPER+4.25L9. CASHISCASH+4.75L10. MISSION STRIKE+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick LUCKY STATEMENT (33.9%) finished 11th — the winner KA YING ATTACK was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 LUCKY STATEMENT 33.9% 2.95 11
2 2 JUNEAU PRIDE 15.9% 6.30 3
3 3 ETALON OR 11.4% 8.76 2
4 6 MISSION STRIKE 8.7% 11.44 10
5 1 KA YING ATTACK 8.6% 11.57 1
6 14 CALIFORNIA MOXIE 5.6% 17.73 5
7 10 BEAR CHAMP 3.5% 28.86 14
8 9 STORM RUNNER 3.4% 29.31 7
9 8 SOMELOVEFROMABOVE 2.7% 37.06 6
10 12 CASHISCASH 2.0% 50.23 9
11 13 WORLD HERO 1.9% 53.23 4
12 11 THE AUSPICIOUS 1.1% 91.57 12
13 4 JOLLY JUMPER 0.6% 154.83 8
14 7 PATCH OF LUCKY 0.6% 167.63 13
LUCKY STATEMENTJUNEAU PRIDEETALON ORMISSION STRIKEKA YING ATTACK — wonCALIFORNIA MOXIEBEAR CHAMPSTORM RUNNERSOMELOVEFROMABOVECASHISCASHWORLD HEROTHE AUSPICIOUSJOLLY JUMPERPATCH OF LUCKY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 72

PLACE

1 19

2 17

3 17

QUINELLA

1,3 123

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 49

1,3 47

2,3 34

FORECAST

1,3 316

TIERCE

1,3,2 777

TRIO

1,2,3 125

FIRST 4

1,2,3,13 800

QUARTET

1,3,2,13 16,636

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

12/1 1,377

12/3 192.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,7,12/1,2,3 138,450