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Sha Tin · 2024-12-22 · 08:15

Race 7

Class 3 1200m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-22 was Class 3 over 1200m. LADY'S CHOICE, ridden by J McDonald and trained by C W Chang, won by 1-1/4, with GOKO WIN second and LUCKY EIGHT third. The 5.4 favourite YOUNG SUPERSTAR finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.08.77
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 LADY'S CHOICE H-/B 1.08.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · C W Chang 1 7.4 1-1/4
2 11 GOKO WIN B A Pouchin · D J Whyte 3 15.0 1-1/4
3 4 LUCKY EIGHT C L Chau · P F Yiu 10 6.6 1-1/4
4 13 MAGNIFICENT NINE B/E A Badel · J Size 9 6.6 2
5 9 GREAT STATE TT M L Yeung · W Y So 11 54.0 2-1/4
6 2 YOUNG SUPERSTAR TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 2 5.4 2-1/4
7 7 SUGAR BALL CP2/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 5 7.0 3
8 1 SEASONS WIT B/TT- H Bowman · J Richards 14 78.0 3-1/4
9 12 KARATE EXPRESS K De Melo · K W Lui 8 20.0 4
10 5 RIDING TOGETHER XB1 Z Purton · D Eustace 4 6.2 5-1/4
11 8 AURORA PATCH B1 A Atzeni · P C Ng 13 24.0 5-1/2
12 14 DASHING DRAGON B Thompson · D A Hayes 7 174.0 7-1/4
13 6 ALSONSO CP1 L Ferraris · M Newnham 6 11.0 7-3/4
14 10 BUNTA BABY CP/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 12 124.0 11-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LADY'S CHOICE2. GOKO WIN+1.25L3. LUCKY EIGHT+1.25L4. MAGNIFICENT NINE+2L5. GREAT STATE+2.25L6. YOUNG SUPERSTAR+2.25L7. SUGAR BALL+3L8. SEASONS WIT+3.25L9. KARATE EXPRESS+4L10. RIDING TOGETHER+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick YOUNG SUPERSTAR (19.1%) finished 6th — the winner LADY'S CHOICE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 YOUNG SUPERSTAR 19.1% 5.23 6
2 5 RIDING TOGETHER 11.8% 8.48 10
3 6 ALSONSO 11.1% 9.04 13
4 12 KARATE EXPRESS 10.6% 9.46 9
5 3 LADY'S CHOICE 9.2% 10.86 1
6 7 SUGAR BALL 9.0% 11.08 7
7 13 MAGNIFICENT NINE 8.9% 11.29 4
8 1 SEASONS WIT 4.3% 23.17 8
9 11 GOKO WIN 4.0% 24.71 2
10 8 AURORA PATCH 3.9% 25.42 11
11 4 LUCKY EIGHT 3.5% 28.35 3
12 9 GREAT STATE 2.0% 50.30 5
13 10 BUNTA BABY 1.7% 59.81 14
14 14 DASHING DRAGON 0.9% 110.70 12
YOUNG SUPERSTARRIDING TOGETHERALSONSOKARATE EXPRESSLADY'S CHOICE — wonSUGAR BALLMAGNIFICENT NINESEASONS WITGOKO WINAURORA PATCHLUCKY EIGHTGREAT STATEBUNTA BABYDASHING DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 74

PLACE

3 25.5

4 24.5

11 38

QUINELLA

3,11 454.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 95.5

3,11 157

4,11 180.5

FORECAST

3,11 903

TIERCE

3,11,4 6,901

TRIO

3,4,11 1,204

FIRST 4

3,4,11,13 1,725

QUARTET

3,11,4,13 44,501

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

2/3 393.5

2/11 255