Sha Tin · 2025-10-01 · 10:05
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-01 was Class 4 over 1200m. AURORA PATCH, ridden by H Bowman and trained by K L Man, won, with AUTUMN VIBES second and SKY SONG third. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | AURORA PATCH 1:08.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 2 | 1.7 | — |
| 2 | 10 | AUTUMN VIBES Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 6 | 4.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 14 | SKY SONG L Hewitson · C Fownes | L Hewitson | C Fownes | 7 | 20.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 8 | GREAT SPIRIT A Atzeni · C H Yip | A Atzeni | C H Yip | 13 | 34.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 9 | HAPPY BUDDIES K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 4 | 93.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | GASTRONOMIQUE K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 5 | 84.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | BRAVE WIN C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 3 | 39.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | STAR PERFORMER D Probert · M Newnham | D Probert | M Newnham | 14 | 177.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 9 | 1 | MASTER PHOENIX L Ferraris · D Eustace | L Ferraris | D Eustace | 10 | 22.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | SUGAR QUEEN PRAWN R Kingscote · D J Whyte | R Kingscote | D J Whyte | 9 | 156.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | JUBILATION FOR ALL H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 1 | 103.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 13 | CIRCUS REEL K De Melo · D J Hall | K De Melo | D J Hall | 11 | 101.0 | 10 |
| 13 | 12 | HANDSOME BOMB M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 12 | 8.1 | 10-1/4 |
| — | 4 | SEA EMERALD J Orman · P F Yiu | J Orman | P F Yiu | — | 10.0 | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | AURORA PATCH | 26.0% | 3.85 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | AUTUMN VIBES | 18.8% | 5.31 | 2 |
| 3 | 12 | HANDSOME BOMB | 10.0% | 9.95 | 13 |
| 4 | 5 | BRAVE WIN | 9.4% | 10.65 | 7 |
| 5 | 1 | MASTER PHOENIX | 6.5% | 15.40 | 9 |
| 6 | 7 | JUBILATION FOR ALL | 6.0% | 16.76 | 11 |
| 7 | 6 | GASTRONOMIQUE | 5.9% | 16.91 | 6 |
| 8 | 14 | SKY SONG | 5.3% | 18.74 | 3 |
| 9 | 8 | GREAT SPIRIT | 4.3% | 23.52 | 4 |
| 10 | 13 | CIRCUS REEL | 3.7% | 27.14 | 12 |
| 11 | 9 | HAPPY BUDDIES | 1.5% | 67.91 | 5 |
| 12 | 2 | STAR PERFORMER | 1.3% | 75.69 | 8 |
| 13 | 11 | SUGAR QUEEN PRAWN | 1.3% | 76.55 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 17
PLACE
3 10.5
10 15.5
14 38.5
QUINELLA
3,10 40
QUINELLA PLACE
3,10 20.5
3,14 53
10,14 111.5
FORECAST
3,10 64
TIERCE
3,10,14 514
TRIO
3,10,14 195
FIRST 4
3,8,10,14 742
QUARTET
3,10,14,8 4,950
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
11/3 269.5
11/10 136.5
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
8,11,12/3,10,14 184,146