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Sha Tin · 2025-10-01 · 10:05

Race 10

Class 3 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-01 was Class 3 over 1400m. MAX QUE, ridden by A Badel and trained by M Newnham, won, with SILVERY BREEZE second and TOP DRAGON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite TOP DRAGON finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1:21.14
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 MAX QUE Closed strongly 1:21.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · M Newnham 2 3.9
2 5 SILVERY BREEZE Closed strongly B Avdulla · D Eustace 4 10.0 SH
3 4 TOP DRAGON Closed strongly Z Purton · W Y So 8 3.1 1/2
4 3 ANODE R Kingscote · C S Shum 14 123.0 1-1/4
5 7 OUTGATE Led early Y L Chung · A S Cruz 5 14.0 1-1/2
6 11 SHAMUS STORM Closed strongly A Atzeni · D A Hayes 13 11.0 1-3/4
7 9 SKY VINO Closed strongly E C W Wong · C Fownes 10 9.5 1-3/4
8 8 TOP GUN K Teetan · F C Lor 6 14.0 2-1/2
9 13 PRESTIGE RICKY D Probert · P F Yiu 1 56.0 3
10 6 LUCKY MY WAY K C Leung · K L Man 11 13.0 3
11 2 SUPERB KID L Ferraris · K W Lui 7 52.0 4-3/4
12 1 MUST GO H Bowman · J Size 3 87.0 5-1/2
13 14 SHARPEN BRIGHT Closed strongly P N Wong · D J Hall 12 69.0 7-1/2
14 10 KA YING SUPERB M F Poon · W K Mo 9 13.0 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MAX QUE2. SILVERY BREEZE+0.1L3. TOP DRAGON+0.5L4. ANODE+1.25L5. OUTGATE+1.5L6. SHAMUS STORM+1.75L7. SKY VINO+1.75L8. TOP GUN+2.5L9. PRESTIGE RICKY+3L10. LUCKY MY WAY+3L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick TOP DRAGON (20.8%) finished 3rd — the winner MAX QUE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 TOP DRAGON 20.8% 4.80 3
2 12 MAX QUE 19.2% 5.21 1
3 6 LUCKY MY WAY 12.3% 8.16 10
4 8 TOP GUN 6.8% 14.74 8
5 10 KA YING SUPERB 6.6% 15.25 14
6 5 SILVERY BREEZE 6.2% 16.19 2
7 11 SHAMUS STORM 5.8% 17.20 6
8 9 SKY VINO 5.6% 17.83 7
9 7 OUTGATE 4.1% 24.33 5
10 2 SUPERB KID 3.7% 27.39 11
11 1 MUST GO 3.6% 27.45 12
12 13 PRESTIGE RICKY 2.2% 45.92 9
13 14 SHARPEN BRIGHT 2.1% 48.18 13
14 3 ANODE 1.1% 89.86 4
TOP DRAGONMAX QUE — wonLUCKY MY WAYTOP GUNKA YING SUPERBSILVERY BREEZESHAMUS STORMSKY VINOOUTGATESUPERB KIDMUST GOPRESTIGE RICKYSHARPEN BRIGHTANODE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 39

PLACE

4 15.5

5 28

12 15.5

QUINELLA

5,12 189.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 69

4,12 34.5

5,12 64.5

FORECAST

12,5 349

TIERCE

12,5,4 1,608

TRIO

4,5,12 236

FIRST 4

3,4,5,12 6,935

QUARTET

12,5,4,3 127,500

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

3/14/5 11,692

3/14/12 65,855

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,5,14/4,5,12 67,797

9TH DOUBLE

14/5 783

14/12 2,074

SIX UP

1,4/3,8/3,5/3,5/5,14/5,12 7,714

1 [Z Purton]

3 [K L Man]