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Sha Tin · 2025-10-01 · 17:53

Race 10

Class 3 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1:21.14
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 MAX QUE Closed strongly 1:21.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · M Newnham 2 3.9 —
2 5 SILVERY BREEZE Closed strongly B Avdulla · D Eustace 4 10.0 SH
3 4 TOP DRAGON Closed strongly Z Purton · W Y So 8 3.1 1/2
4 3 ANODE R Kingscote · C S Shum 14 123.0 1-1/4
5 7 OUTGATE Led early Y L Chung · A S Cruz 5 14.0 1-1/2
6 11 SHAMUS STORM Closed strongly A Atzeni · D A Hayes 13 11.0 1-3/4
7 9 SKY VINO Closed strongly E C W Wong · C Fownes 10 9.5 1-3/4
8 8 TOP GUN K Teetan · F C Lor 6 14.0 2-1/2
9 13 PRESTIGE RICKY D Probert · P F Yiu 1 56.0 3
10 6 LUCKY MY WAY K C Leung · K L Man 11 13.0 3
11 2 SUPERB KID L Ferraris · K W Lui 7 52.0 4-3/4
12 1 MUST GO H Bowman · J Size 3 87.0 5-1/2
13 14 SHARPEN BRIGHT Closed strongly P N Wong · D J Hall 12 69.0 7-1/2
14 10 KA YING SUPERB M F Poon · W K Mo 9 13.0 7-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-01 was Class 3 over 1400m. MAX QUE, ridden by A Badel and trained by M Newnham, won, with SILVERY BREEZE second and TOP DRAGON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite TOP DRAGON finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MAX QUE—2. SILVERY BREEZE+0.1L3. TOP DRAGON+0.5L4. ANODE+1.25L5. OUTGATE+1.5L6. SHAMUS STORM+1.75L7. SKY VINO+1.75L8. TOP GUN+2.5L9. PRESTIGE RICKY+3L10. LUCKY MY WAY+3L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick TOP DRAGON (20.8%) finished 3rd — the winner MAX QUE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 TOP DRAGON 20.8% 4.80 3
2 12 MAX QUE 19.2% 5.21 1
3 6 LUCKY MY WAY 12.3% 8.16 10
4 8 TOP GUN 6.8% 14.74 8
5 10 KA YING SUPERB 6.6% 15.25 14
6 5 SILVERY BREEZE 6.2% 16.19 2
7 11 SHAMUS STORM 5.8% 17.20 6
8 9 SKY VINO 5.6% 17.83 7
9 7 OUTGATE 4.1% 24.33 5
10 2 SUPERB KID 3.7% 27.39 11
11 1 MUST GO 3.6% 27.45 12
12 13 PRESTIGE RICKY 2.2% 45.92 9
13 14 SHARPEN BRIGHT 2.1% 48.18 13
14 3 ANODE 1.1% 89.86 4
TOP DRAGONMAX QUE — wonLUCKY MY WAYTOP GUNKA YING SUPERBSILVERY BREEZESHAMUS STORMSKY VINOOUTGATESUPERB KIDMUST GOPRESTIGE RICKYSHARPEN BRIGHTANODE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 39

PLACE

4 15.5

5 28

12 15.5

QUINELLA

5,12 189.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 69

4,12 34.5

5,12 64.5

FORECAST

12,5 349

TIERCE

12,5,4 1,608

TRIO

4,5,12 236

FIRST 4

3,4,5,12 6,935

QUARTET

12,5,4,3 127,500

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

3/14/5 11,692

3/14/12 65,855

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,5,14/4,5,12 67,797

9TH DOUBLE

14/5 783

14/12 2,074

SIX UP

1,4/3,8/3,5/3,5/5,14/5,12 7,714

3 [K L Man] —

1 [Z Purton] —