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Sha Tin · 2025-10-01 · 00:56

Race 4

Class 4 1200m Course A+3 13 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-01 was Class 4 over 1200m. SUNNY Q, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by W Y So, won, with DO YOUR PART second and LUCKY MAN third. The 2.5 favourite DO YOUR PART finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1:09.29
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 14 SUNNY Q 1:09.29 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · W Y So 7 8.8
2 2 DO YOUR PART K De Melo · K W Lui 12 2.5 SH
3 11 LUCKY MAN D Probert · D A Hayes 3 7.8 1/2
4 7 INCREDIBLE MOMENT L Ferraris · M Newnham 9 10.0 1/2
5 13 REWARDING TWINKLE M Chadwick · F C Lor 2 5.3 3/4
6 10 KING GLORIOSO L Hewitson · D J Whyte 5 90.0 1-3/4
7 6 AMAZING FUN J Orman · C H Yip 4 26.0 1-3/4
8 1 DANCING CLASSICS H Bowman · C Fownes 6 10.0 2-3/4
9 8 GROOVY FEELING Z Purton · J Richards 13 16.0 3
10 3 WARRIORS DREAM K Teetan · D Eustace 8 123.0 3-1/4
11 12 CLUB ACE M F Poon · J Size 1 19.0 3-1/4
12 4 NYX GLUCK C L Chau · W K Mo 11 123.0 3-3/4
13 5 PRIDE BELIEVER A Badel · D J Hall 10 111.0 4-1/4
9 FLASH STAR R Kingscote · C S Shum

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUNNY Q2. DO YOUR PART+0.1L3. LUCKY MAN+0.5L4. INCREDIBLE MOMENT+0.5L5. REWARDING TWINKLE+0.75L6. KING GLORIOSO+1.75L7. AMAZING FUN+1.75L8. DANCING CLASSICS+2.75L9. GROOVY FEELING+3L10. WARRIORS DREAM+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick REWARDING TWINKLE (26.2%) finished 5th — the winner SUNNY Q was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 13 REWARDING TWINKLE 26.2% 3.81 5
2 2 DO YOUR PART 16.0% 6.26 2
3 8 GROOVY FEELING 14.4% 6.94 9
4 1 DANCING CLASSICS 9.8% 10.22 8
5 14 SUNNY Q 6.5% 15.36 1
6 4 NYX GLUCK 5.5% 18.09 12
7 12 CLUB ACE 5.2% 19.13 11
8 11 LUCKY MAN 5.1% 19.63 3
9 7 INCREDIBLE MOMENT 3.5% 28.36 4
10 5 PRIDE BELIEVER 2.7% 37.57 13
11 6 AMAZING FUN 2.2% 45.75 7
12 10 KING GLORIOSO 1.7% 60.46 6
13 3 WARRIORS DREAM 1.2% 82.71 10
REWARDING TWINKLEDO YOUR PARTGROOVY FEELINGDANCING CLASSICSSUNNY Q — wonNYX GLUCKCLUB ACELUCKY MANINCREDIBLE MOMENTPRIDE BELIEVERAMAZING FUNKING GLORIOSOWARRIORS DREAM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 88.5

PLACE

2 14

11 24.5

14 24

QUINELLA

2,14 157

QUINELLA PLACE

2,11 48.5

2,14 63.5

11,14 126

FORECAST

14,2 447

TIERCE

14,2,11 3,415

TRIO

2,11,14 441

FIRST 4

2,7,11,14 897

QUARTET

14,2,11,7 21,680

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,5,6/11,14>2,9 17,770

3RD DOUBLE

6/2,9 36.5

6/14 325.5