Happy Valley · 2025-10-15 · 18:41
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | APOLAR FIGHTER Closed strongly 1:39.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D Eustace | C L Chau | D Eustace | 5 | 9.9 | — |
| 2 | 1 | COURIER MAGIC Closed strongly Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 7 | 2.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 3 | 2 | NINJA DERBY Closed strongly L Hewitson · B Crawford | L Hewitson | B Crawford | 12 | 4.8 | 5-3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | DRAGON SUNRISE K De Melo · K W Lui | K De Melo | K W Lui | 1 | 22.0 | 6 |
| 5 | 7 | GOLD TACK Closed strongly M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 4 | 12.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | HE WAS ME Led early M L Yeung · A S Cruz | M L Yeung | A S Cruz | 6 | 14.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | LITTLE FAIRY Closed strongly R Kingscote · K H Ting | R Kingscote | K H Ting | 9 | 61.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | FOREMOST TEDDY J Orman · C S Shum | J Orman | C S Shum | 11 | 21.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | MANYTHANKS FOREVER D Probert · W Y So | D Probert | W Y So | 2 | 29.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | THE WAY WE WIN H Bentley · J Richards | H Bentley | J Richards | 3 | 13.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 11 | 3 | COSMO LIGHT H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 10 | 116.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | LAPRAS M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 8 | 31.0 | 14-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-10-15 was Class 5 over 1650m. APOLAR FIGHTER, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D Eustace, won, with COURIER MAGIC second and NINJA DERBY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.0 favourite COURIER MAGIC finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | COURIER MAGIC | 40.3% | 2.48 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | NINJA DERBY | 11.6% | 8.62 | 3 |
| 3 | 11 | THE WAY WE WIN | 9.1% | 11.03 | 10 |
| 4 | 7 | GOLD TACK | 8.6% | 11.68 | 5 |
| 5 | 12 | LAPRAS | 6.7% | 14.91 | 12 |
| 6 | 10 | APOLAR FIGHTER | 4.9% | 20.29 | 1 |
| 7 | 8 | HE WAS ME | 4.8% | 20.81 | 6 |
| 8 | 9 | MANYTHANKS FOREVER | 4.0% | 25.27 | 9 |
| 9 | 6 | FOREMOST TEDDY | 3.8% | 26.46 | 8 |
| 10 | 4 | DRAGON SUNRISE | 2.4% | 41.41 | 4 |
| 11 | 5 | LITTLE FAIRY | 2.3% | 42.93 | 7 |
| 12 | 3 | COSMO LIGHT | 1.5% | 65.06 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 99
PLACE
1 12.5
2 16
10 24
QUINELLA
1,10 101.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 20
1,10 40
2,10 65.5
FORECAST
10,1 320
TIERCE
10,1,2 1,293
TRIO
1,2,10 130
FIRST 4
1,2,4,10 538
QUARTET
10,1,2,4 16,071