Happy Valley · 2025-10-15 · 12:15
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-10-15 was Class 4 over 1200m. KING GLORIOSO, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D J Whyte, won, with THUNDER PRINCE second and THE PERFECT MATCH third. The 3.6 favourite THUNDER PRINCE finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | KING GLORIOSO 1:10.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 2 | 10.0 | — |
| 2 | 7 | THUNDER PRINCE H Bowman · J Richards | H Bowman | J Richards | 6 | 3.6 | NOSE |
| 3 | 2 | THE PERFECT MATCH C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 8 | 10.0 | SH |
| 4 | 6 | SIGHT HAPPY B Avdulla · D A Hayes | B Avdulla | D A Hayes | 3 | 7.6 | 2 |
| 5 | 10 | LUCKY KING K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 1 | 38.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 12 | GOLDEN FRIENDSHIP M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 5 | 4.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | IMPENDING LEGACY A Atzeni · M Newnham | A Atzeni | M Newnham | 7 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 8 | INCANTO STAR Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 4 | 8.2 | 4 |
| 9 | 3 | UP WITH CHARM C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 12 | 82.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 1 | FORTUNE WHISKEY E C W Wong · D Eustace | E C W Wong | D Eustace | 10 | 9.5 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 11 | SUNNY SING SPIRIT D Probert · W Y So | D Probert | W Y So | 9 | 87.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 5 | GREAT LOOKING R Kingscote · C H Yip | R Kingscote | C H Yip | 11 | 91.0 | 22-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | THE PERFECT MATCH | 21.9% | 4.57 | 3 |
| 2 | 7 | THUNDER PRINCE | 17.4% | 5.73 | 2 |
| 3 | 8 | INCANTO STAR | 15.9% | 6.31 | 8 |
| 4 | 12 | GOLDEN FRIENDSHIP | 13.0% | 7.67 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 | SIGHT HAPPY | 8.2% | 12.22 | 4 |
| 6 | 4 | IMPENDING LEGACY | 6.8% | 14.63 | 7 |
| 7 | 1 | FORTUNE WHISKEY | 6.1% | 16.32 | 10 |
| 8 | 9 | KING GLORIOSO | 5.1% | 19.68 | 1 |
| 9 | 10 | LUCKY KING | 1.9% | 51.86 | 5 |
| 10 | 11 | SUNNY SING SPIRIT | 1.4% | 70.98 | 11 |
| 11 | 3 | UP WITH CHARM | 1.3% | 76.31 | 9 |
| 12 | 5 | GREAT LOOKING | 0.9% | 109.82 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 104
PLACE
2 33
7 14.5
9 30
QUINELLA
7,9 206
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 101.5
2,9 226
7,9 71
FORECAST
9,7 432
TIERCE
9,7,2 5,990
TRIO
2,7,9 898
FIRST 4
2,6,7,9 956
QUARTET
9,7,2,6 26,569
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
1/7 21
1/9 385