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Happy Valley · 2025-10-15 · 12:15

Race 4

Class 4 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-10-15 was Class 4 over 1200m. KING GLORIOSO, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D J Whyte, won, with THUNDER PRINCE second and THE PERFECT MATCH third. The 3.6 favourite THUNDER PRINCE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1:10.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 KING GLORIOSO 1:10.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D J Whyte 2 10.0
2 7 THUNDER PRINCE H Bowman · J Richards 6 3.6 NOSE
3 2 THE PERFECT MATCH C L Chau · C S Shum 8 10.0 SH
4 6 SIGHT HAPPY B Avdulla · D A Hayes 3 7.6 2
5 10 LUCKY KING K C Leung · W K Mo 1 38.0 2
6 12 GOLDEN FRIENDSHIP M L Yeung · K H Ting 5 4.4 2-1/4
7 4 IMPENDING LEGACY A Atzeni · M Newnham 7 10.0 4
8 8 INCANTO STAR Z Purton · D J Hall 4 8.2 4
9 3 UP WITH CHARM C Y Ho · K L Man 12 82.0 4
10 1 FORTUNE WHISKEY E C W Wong · D Eustace 10 9.5 4-1/2
11 11 SUNNY SING SPIRIT D Probert · W Y So 9 87.0 6
12 5 GREAT LOOKING R Kingscote · C H Yip 11 91.0 22-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KING GLORIOSO2. THUNDER PRINCE+0.05L3. THE PERFECT MATCH+0.1L4. SIGHT HAPPY+2L5. LUCKY KING+2L6. GOLDEN FRIENDSHIP+2.25L7. IMPENDING LEGACY+4L8. INCANTO STAR+4L9. UP WITH CHARM+4L10. FORTUNE WHISKEY+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick THE PERFECT MATCH (21.9%) finished 3rd — the winner KING GLORIOSO was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 THE PERFECT MATCH 21.9% 4.57 3
2 7 THUNDER PRINCE 17.4% 5.73 2
3 8 INCANTO STAR 15.9% 6.31 8
4 12 GOLDEN FRIENDSHIP 13.0% 7.67 6
5 6 SIGHT HAPPY 8.2% 12.22 4
6 4 IMPENDING LEGACY 6.8% 14.63 7
7 1 FORTUNE WHISKEY 6.1% 16.32 10
8 9 KING GLORIOSO 5.1% 19.68 1
9 10 LUCKY KING 1.9% 51.86 5
10 11 SUNNY SING SPIRIT 1.4% 70.98 11
11 3 UP WITH CHARM 1.3% 76.31 9
12 5 GREAT LOOKING 0.9% 109.82 12
THE PERFECT MATCHTHUNDER PRINCEINCANTO STARGOLDEN FRIENDSHIPSIGHT HAPPYIMPENDING LEGACYFORTUNE WHISKEYKING GLORIOSO — wonLUCKY KINGSUNNY SING SPIRITUP WITH CHARMGREAT LOOKING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 104

PLACE

2 33

7 14.5

9 30

QUINELLA

7,9 206

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 101.5

2,9 226

7,9 71

FORECAST

9,7 432

TIERCE

9,7,2 5,990

TRIO

2,7,9 898

FIRST 4

2,6,7,9 956

QUARTET

9,7,2,6 26,569

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

1/7 21

1/9 385