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Happy Valley · 2025-10-15 · 12:46

Race 5

Class 4 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2025-10-15 was Class 4 over 1650m. FANTASTIC FUN, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C S Shum, won, with ACE WAR second and GLORIOUS RYDER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1:40.44
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 FANTASTIC FUN Closed strongly 1:40.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C S Shum 1 4.9
2 11 ACE WAR Closed strongly D Probert · D J Whyte 4 25.0 3/4
3 8 GLORIOUS RYDER Closed strongly L Hewitson · D Eustace 6 49.0 1-1/2
4 4 FOREVER GLORIOUS Led early K De Melo · B Crawford 2 5.2 1-3/4
5 9 YOUNG FIGHTER R Kingscote · C Fownes 3 21.0 1-3/4
6 10 GALE SAGA A Badel · P C Ng 5 5.4 2-1/2
7 6 SMART CITY Closed strongly M F Poon · P F Yiu 10 12.0 2-3/4
8 7 YOUTH POWER E C W Wong · D A Hayes 7 7.6 2-3/4
9 12 YIU CHEUNG VICTORY Closed strongly K Teetan · C H Yip 11 37.0 3-1/4
10 3 FORTUNATE SON K C Leung · W K Mo 12 11.0 3-1/4
11 1 SUNDAY'S SERENADE Z Purton · J Richards 8 5.3 3-1/2
12 2 STAR GLOW C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 62.0 26-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FANTASTIC FUN2. ACE WAR+0.75L3. GLORIOUS RYDER+1.5L4. FOREVER GLORIOUS+1.75L5. YOUNG FIGHTER+1.75L6. GALE SAGA+2.5L7. SMART CITY+2.75L8. YOUTH POWER+2.75L9. YIU CHEUNG VICTORY+3.25L10. FORTUNATE SON+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick FANTASTIC FUN (22.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 FANTASTIC FUN 22.1% 4.52 1
2 7 YOUTH POWER 16.1% 6.21 8
3 4 FOREVER GLORIOUS 11.6% 8.61 4
4 1 SUNDAY'S SERENADE 10.2% 9.79 11
5 6 SMART CITY 9.6% 10.46 7
6 3 FORTUNATE SON 8.3% 12.01 10
7 10 GALE SAGA 7.8% 12.83 6
8 9 YOUNG FIGHTER 7.0% 14.37 5
9 11 ACE WAR 2.2% 45.66 2
10 12 YIU CHEUNG VICTORY 1.9% 53.74 9
11 2 STAR GLOW 1.8% 56.71 12
12 8 GLORIOUS RYDER 1.5% 66.40 3
FANTASTIC FUN — wonYOUTH POWERFOREVER GLORIOUSSUNDAY'S SERENADESMART CITYFORTUNATE SONGALE SAGAYOUNG FIGHTERACE WARYIU CHEUNG VICTORYSTAR GLOWGLORIOUS RYDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 49.5

PLACE

5 21

8 121.5

11 76.5

QUINELLA

5,11 685

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 508

5,11 212.5

8,11 1,202

FORECAST

5,11 1,151

TIERCE

5,11,8 31,872

TRIO

5,8,11 10,488

FIRST 4

4,5,8,11 8,215

QUARTET

5,11,8,4 217,811

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

1/9/5 2,592

1/9/11 1,975

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,7,9/5,8,11 1,061,333

4TH DOUBLE

9/5 651

9/11 438