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Happy Valley · 2025-12-10 · 10:35

Race 1

Class 5 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2025-12-10 was Class 5 over 1650m. FAMILY FORTUNE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won, with STERLING WONGCHOY second and PERFECTO MOMENTS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1:40.73
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 FAMILY FORTUNE Closed strongly 1:40.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes 7 3.9
2 3 STERLING WONGCHOY Closed strongly H Bowman · D J Whyte 3 4.8 1-1/4
3 11 PERFECTO MOMENTS Led early M L Yeung · K H Ting 8 22.0 1-1/4
4 6 TSUEN WAN GLORY H Doyle · K L Man 1 9.5 1-1/2
5 5 SOARING BRONCO Closed strongly M Guyon · P C Ng 10 17.0 3
6 12 STRONGEST BOY K Teetan · J Richards 2 6.8 3-1/4
7 8 DRAGON SUNRISE L Hewitson · K W Lui 4 10.0 3-1/4
8 4 IRON LEGION Closed strongly Y L Chung · A S Cruz 12 39.0 4-1/2
9 10 BINGO BABE Closed strongly H T Mo · Y S Tsui 9 86.0 6
10 7 WINDICATOR FAMILY J McDonald · D J Hall 5 8.5 6
11 2 REWARDING TWINKLE K C Leung · F C Lor 6 12.0 6-1/4
12 1 LUCKY BLESSING M F Poon · W K Mo 11 14.0 13-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FAMILY FORTUNE2. STERLING WONGCHOY+1.25L3. PERFECTO MOMENTS+1.25L4. TSUEN WAN GLORY+1.5L5. SOARING BRONCO+3L6. STRONGEST BOY+3.25L7. DRAGON SUNRISE+3.25L8. IRON LEGION+4.5L9. BINGO BABE+6L10. WINDICATOR FAMILY+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick STERLING WONGCHOY (19.0%) finished 2nd — the winner FAMILY FORTUNE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 STERLING WONGCHOY 19.0% 5.26 2
2 9 FAMILY FORTUNE 11.9% 8.41 1
3 1 LUCKY BLESSING 9.6% 10.46 12
4 12 STRONGEST BOY 9.2% 10.87 6
5 7 WINDICATOR FAMILY 8.7% 11.47 10
6 11 PERFECTO MOMENTS 8.7% 11.49 3
7 6 TSUEN WAN GLORY 8.5% 11.75 4
8 2 REWARDING TWINKLE 8.5% 11.80 11
9 5 SOARING BRONCO 6.2% 16.21 5
10 8 DRAGON SUNRISE 5.6% 17.91 7
11 4 IRON LEGION 2.7% 37.09 8
12 10 BINGO BABE 1.5% 67.72 9
STERLING WONGCHOYFAMILY FORTUNE — wonLUCKY BLESSINGSTRONGEST BOYWINDICATOR FAMILYPERFECTO MOMENTSTSUEN WAN GLORYREWARDING TWINKLESOARING BRONCODRAGON SUNRISEIRON LEGIONBINGO BABE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 39

PLACE

3 18

9 18

11 58

QUINELLA

3,9 118

QUINELLA PLACE

3,9 49

3,11 156.5

9,11 119.5

FORECAST

9,3 252

TIERCE

9,3,11 2,866

TRIO

3,9,11 741

FIRST 4

3,6,9,11 865

QUARTET

9,3,11,6 16,763