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Happy Valley · 2025-12-10 · 11:35

Race 3

Class 4 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2025-12-10 was Class 4 over 1650m. FIVEFORTWO, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by K W Lui, won, with SUNDAY'S SERENADE second and INCANTO STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite STORMI finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1:40.14
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 FIVEFORTWO Closed strongly 1:40.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · K W Lui 4 71.0
2 3 SUNDAY'S SERENADE Closed strongly M Barzalona · J Richards 6 10.0 3/4
3 10 INCANTO STAR Closed strongly J Orman · D J Hall 1 32.0 2-1/4
4 9 SAVVY WARRIOR Closed strongly A Atzeni · D Eustace 7 27.0 2-1/2
5 4 PRESTIGE RICKY Closed strongly B Avdulla · P F Yiu 2 5.6 2-3/4
6 5 AEROINVINCIBLE Led early C Y Ho · P C Ng 5 5.0 3-1/4
7 2 THE AZURE Closed strongly J McDonald · F C Lor 12 21.0 3-1/2
8 12 STORMI C L Chau · W K Mo 8 3.5 3-1/2
9 7 BULL ATTITUDE Z Purton · M Newnham 10 3.6 4-1/2
10 8 KOLACHI D Probert · D J Whyte 11 45.0 6
11 11 DR GOLDEN GENERAL Closed strongly R Kingscote · J Size 3 73.0 7
12 6 YOUNG BRILLIANT C Lemaire · C H Yip 9 43.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FIVEFORTWO2. SUNDAY'S SERENADE+0.75L3. INCANTO STAR+2.25L4. SAVVY WARRIOR+2.5L5. PRESTIGE RICKY+2.75L6. AEROINVINCIBLE+3.25L7. THE AZURE+3.5L8. STORMI+3.5L9. BULL ATTITUDE+4.5L10. KOLACHI+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick BULL ATTITUDE (45.3%) finished 9th — the winner FIVEFORTWO was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 BULL ATTITUDE 45.3% 2.21 9
2 5 AEROINVINCIBLE 9.9% 10.09 6
3 3 SUNDAY'S SERENADE 9.2% 10.83 2
4 12 STORMI 8.5% 11.75 8
5 10 INCANTO STAR 5.7% 17.51 3
6 2 THE AZURE 5.7% 17.52 7
7 4 PRESTIGE RICKY 4.9% 20.33 5
8 9 SAVVY WARRIOR 3.3% 30.45 4
9 8 KOLACHI 2.5% 39.88 10
10 6 YOUNG BRILLIANT 2.2% 45.29 12
11 11 DR GOLDEN GENERAL 1.4% 70.00 11
12 1 FIVEFORTWO 1.3% 78.09 1
BULL ATTITUDEAEROINVINCIBLESUNDAY'S SERENADESTORMIINCANTO STARTHE AZUREPRESTIGE RICKYSAVVY WARRIORKOLACHIYOUNG BRILLIANTDR GOLDEN GENERALFIVEFORTWO — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 714

PLACE

1 181

3 28.5

10 64.5

QUINELLA

1,3 5,771

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 1,480

1,10 2,033.5

3,10 259.5

FORECAST

1,3 7,507

TIERCE

1,3,10 144,327

TRIO

1,3,10 22,016

FIRST 4

1,3,9,10 59,838

QUARTET

1,3,10,9 1,084,120

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

6,10,12/1,3,10 3,561,423

2ND DOUBLE

12/1 4,492

12/3 133.5