Happy Valley · 2025-12-10 · 11:35
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2025-12-10 was Class 4 over 1650m. FIVEFORTWO, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by K W Lui, won, with SUNDAY'S SERENADE second and INCANTO STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite STORMI finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | FIVEFORTWO Closed strongly 1:40.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · K W Lui | L Ferraris | K W Lui | 4 | 71.0 | — |
| 2 | 3 | SUNDAY'S SERENADE Closed strongly M Barzalona · J Richards | M Barzalona | J Richards | 6 | 10.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 10 | INCANTO STAR Closed strongly J Orman · D J Hall | J Orman | D J Hall | 1 | 32.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | SAVVY WARRIOR Closed strongly A Atzeni · D Eustace | A Atzeni | D Eustace | 7 | 27.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 4 | PRESTIGE RICKY Closed strongly B Avdulla · P F Yiu | B Avdulla | P F Yiu | 2 | 5.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | AEROINVINCIBLE Led early C Y Ho · P C Ng | C Y Ho | P C Ng | 5 | 5.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 2 | THE AZURE Closed strongly J McDonald · F C Lor | J McDonald | F C Lor | 12 | 21.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 12 | STORMI C L Chau · W K Mo | C L Chau | W K Mo | 8 | 3.5 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | BULL ATTITUDE Z Purton · M Newnham | Z Purton | M Newnham | 10 | 3.6 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | KOLACHI D Probert · D J Whyte | D Probert | D J Whyte | 11 | 45.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 11 | DR GOLDEN GENERAL Closed strongly R Kingscote · J Size | R Kingscote | J Size | 3 | 73.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 6 | YOUNG BRILLIANT C Lemaire · C H Yip | C Lemaire | C H Yip | 9 | 43.0 | 8-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | BULL ATTITUDE | 45.3% | 2.21 | 9 |
| 2 | 5 | AEROINVINCIBLE | 9.9% | 10.09 | 6 |
| 3 | 3 | SUNDAY'S SERENADE | 9.2% | 10.83 | 2 |
| 4 | 12 | STORMI | 8.5% | 11.75 | 8 |
| 5 | 10 | INCANTO STAR | 5.7% | 17.51 | 3 |
| 6 | 2 | THE AZURE | 5.7% | 17.52 | 7 |
| 7 | 4 | PRESTIGE RICKY | 4.9% | 20.33 | 5 |
| 8 | 9 | SAVVY WARRIOR | 3.3% | 30.45 | 4 |
| 9 | 8 | KOLACHI | 2.5% | 39.88 | 10 |
| 10 | 6 | YOUNG BRILLIANT | 2.2% | 45.29 | 12 |
| 11 | 11 | DR GOLDEN GENERAL | 1.4% | 70.00 | 11 |
| 12 | 1 | FIVEFORTWO | 1.3% | 78.09 | 1 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 714
PLACE
1 181
3 28.5
10 64.5
QUINELLA
1,3 5,771
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 1,480
1,10 2,033.5
3,10 259.5
FORECAST
1,3 7,507
TIERCE
1,3,10 144,327
TRIO
1,3,10 22,016
FIRST 4
1,3,9,10 59,838
QUARTET
1,3,10,9 1,084,120
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
6,10,12/1,3,10 3,561,423
2ND DOUBLE
12/1 4,492
12/3 133.5