Sha Tin · 2025-12-14 · 06:20
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2025-12-14 was Group 1 over 2400m. SOSIE, ridden by M Guyon and trained by A Fabre, won, with GIAVELLOTTO second and GOLIATH third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SOSIE Closed strongly 2:28.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Guyon · A Fabre | M Guyon | A Fabre | 8 | 2.7 | — |
| 2 | 3 | GIAVELLOTTO Closed strongly A Atzeni · M Botti | A Atzeni | M Botti | 6 | 4.2 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 4 | GOLIATH Closed strongly C Soumillon · F-H Graffard | C Soumillon | F-H Graffard | 4 | 20.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 2 | AL RIFFA Closed strongly D B McMonagle · J P O'Brien | D B McMonagle | J P O'Brien | 2 | 8.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | LOS ANGELES R Moore · A P O'Brien | R Moore | A P O'Brien | 10 | 12.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | BUNDLE AWARD Closed strongly J McDonald · J Size | J McDonald | J Size | 5 | 14.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | MOMENTS IN TIME Closed strongly H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 1 | 51.0 | 9 |
| 8 | 11 | KA YING GENERATION Closed strongly L Ferraris · P C Ng | L Ferraris | P C Ng | 11 | 42.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 9 | 7 | ENSUED C Williams · J Size | C Williams | J Size | 7 | 48.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 10 | 6 | URBAN CHIC C Lemaire · R Takei | C Lemaire | R Takei | 3 | 5.7 | 13-1/4 |
| 11 | 8 | EYDON Led early O Murphy · A M Balding | O Murphy | A M Balding | 9 | 21.0 | 47 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | URBAN CHIC | 17.1% | 5.85 | 10 |
| 2 | 3 | GIAVELLOTTO | 14.4% | 6.94 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | GOLIATH | 12.2% | 8.19 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 | LOS ANGELES | 11.8% | 8.50 | 5 |
| 5 | 2 | AL RIFFA | 9.8% | 10.22 | 4 |
| 6 | 9 | MOMENTS IN TIME | 9.0% | 11.08 | 7 |
| 7 | 5 | SOSIE | 8.0% | 12.55 | 1 |
| 8 | 8 | EYDON | 6.0% | 16.69 | 11 |
| 9 | 10 | BUNDLE AWARD | 5.9% | 17.03 | 6 |
| 10 | 11 | KA YING GENERATION | 3.4% | 29.54 | 8 |
| 11 | 7 | ENSUED | 2.5% | 39.93 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 27
PLACE
3 15.5
4 53
5 14
QUINELLA
3,5 61
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 129.5
3,5 23.5
4,5 107
FORECAST
5,3 108
TIERCE
5,3,4 1,310
TRIO
3,4,5 264
FIRST 4
2,3,4,5 450
QUARTET
5,3,4,2 7,619
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
3,8,14/3,4,5 100,334
3RD DOUBLE
8/3 172.5
8/5 1,405.5