Sha Tin · 2025-12-14 · 08:50
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2025-12-14 was Group 1 over 2000m. ROMANTIC WARRIOR, ridden by J McDonald and trained by C S Shum, won, with BELLAGIO OPERA second and QUISISANA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | ROMANTIC WARRIOR Closed strongly 2:02.29 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 2 | 1.1 | — |
| 2 | 2 | BELLAGIO OPERA Closed strongly K Yokoyama · H Uemura | K Yokoyama | H Uemura | 5 | 9.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 7 | QUISISANA Closed strongly C Soumillon · F-H Graffard | C Soumillon | F-H Graffard | 4 | 10.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | GALEN D B McMonagle · J P O'Brien | D B McMonagle | J P O'Brien | 7 | 34.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | ROUSHAM PARK Closed strongly C Lemaire · H Tanaka | C Lemaire | H Tanaka | 3 | 43.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | CHANCHENG GLORY Led early M Guyon · K W Lui | M Guyon | K W Lui | 6 | 47.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 5 | STRAIGHT ARRON C Williams · D A Hayes | C Williams | D A Hayes | 1 | 31.0 | 8-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | ROMANTIC WARRIOR | 62.8% | 1.59 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | BELLAGIO OPERA | 12.2% | 8.23 | 2 |
| 3 | 7 | QUISISANA | 7.2% | 13.96 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | GALEN | 5.4% | 18.40 | 4 |
| 5 | 5 | STRAIGHT ARRON | 5.0% | 19.94 | 7 |
| 6 | 3 | ROUSHAM PARK | 4.2% | 23.67 | 5 |
| 7 | 6 | CHANCHENG GLORY | 3.3% | 30.71 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 11
PLACE
1 10.1
2 12.5
7 16
QUINELLA
1,2 23.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 14
1,7 15
2,7 26.5
FORECAST
1,2 23
TIERCE
1,2,7 58
TRIO
1,2,7 30
FIRST 4
1,2,4,7 82
QUARTET
1,2,7,4 287
All pools (2 more)
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,8/1,2,7 8,123
7TH DOUBLE
2/1 46.5
2/2 63.5