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Sha Tin · 2025-12-14 · 05:45

Race 3

Class 4 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2025-12-14 was Class 4 over 1200m. COOL BOY, ridden by J Orman and trained by J Richards, won, with LUCKY MCQUEEN second and PACKING PHOENIX third. The 2.0 favourite MAJESTIC VALOUR finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1:10.07
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 COOL BOY 1:10.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Orman · J Richards 14 31.0
2 14 LUCKY MCQUEEN M Chadwick · W K Mo 6 44.0 3/4
3 3 PACKING PHOENIX Z Purton · K W Lui 2 4.1 2-1/2
4 13 SPEEDY SMARTIE K Teetan · B Crawford 9 10.0 2-1/2
5 4 VOYAGE BOSS K C Leung · F C Lor 4 8.4 2-3/4
6 2 VULCANUS B Avdulla · Y S Tsui 12 67.0 3-1/4
7 9 MONTA FRUTTA Y L Chung · A S Cruz 10 70.0 4
8 1 MAJESTIC VALOUR R Moore · P C Ng 7 2.0 4-1/2
9 6 JUBILANT STAR J McDonald · D J Hall 11 9.4 4-3/4
10 12 WINNING DIAMOND U Rispoli · C H Yip 13 56.0 4-3/4
11 10 STORMY KNIGHT H Bowman · D A Hayes 3 38.0 6-1/2
12 11 ZEPHYR L Hewitson · M Newnham 5 57.0 7-1/4
13 7 AQUAMAN R Kingscote · C W Chang 8 129.0 7-1/4
14 5 FORTUNE SUPERNOVA T Marquand · K H Ting 1 61.0 8-1/4
2 MABUBU C Y Ho · W Y So

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. COOL BOY2. LUCKY MCQUEEN+0.75L3. PACKING PHOENIX+2.5L4. SPEEDY SMARTIE+2.5L5. VOYAGE BOSS+2.75L6. VULCANUS+3.25L7. MONTA FRUTTA+4L8. MAJESTIC VALOUR+4.5L9. JUBILANT STAR+4.75L10. WINNING DIAMOND+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick MAJESTIC VALOUR (35.9%) finished 8th — the winner COOL BOY was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 MAJESTIC VALOUR 35.9% 2.78 8
2 3 PACKING PHOENIX 25.7% 3.89 3
3 13 SPEEDY SMARTIE 10.9% 9.19 4
4 6 JUBILANT STAR 5.3% 18.95 9
5 4 VOYAGE BOSS 4.0% 25.01 5
6 2 VULCANUS 3.3% 30.31 6
7 10 STORMY KNIGHT 3.2% 31.73 11
8 14 LUCKY MCQUEEN 2.2% 44.57 2
9 8 COOL BOY 2.2% 45.42 1
10 11 ZEPHYR 2.0% 49.29 12
11 9 MONTA FRUTTA 1.7% 58.95 7
12 12 WINNING DIAMOND 1.5% 68.52 10
13 5 FORTUNE SUPERNOVA 1.2% 84.08 14
14 7 AQUAMAN 0.9% 106.71 13
MAJESTIC VALOURPACKING PHOENIXSPEEDY SMARTIEJUBILANT STARVOYAGE BOSSVULCANUSSTORMY KNIGHTLUCKY MCQUEENCOOL BOY — wonZEPHYRMONTA FRUTTAWINNING DIAMONDFORTUNE SUPERNOVAAQUAMAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 319

PLACE

3 15.5

8 57

14 78.5

QUINELLA

8,14 3,656

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 154.5

3,14 239.5

8,14 810.5

FORECAST

8,14 7,526

TIERCE

8,14,3 44,888

TRIO

3,8,14 5,252

FIRST 4

3,8,13,14 7,709

QUARTET

8,14,3,13 318,264

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

4/8 1,862

4/14 486