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Sha Tin · 2026-02-22 · 06:30

ORCHID HANDICAP

Race 4

Class 2 GOOD 1000m Course A+3 7 runners

Race 4 ("ORCHID HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-02-22 was Class 2 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. STELLAR EXPRESS, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by J Size, won, with COLOURFUL KING second and INVINCIBLE SAGE third. The 1.5 favourite COLOURFUL KING finished 2nd.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998

Result

Official · 0:55.36
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 STELLAR EXPRESS B 0:55.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · J Size 2 4.8
2 2 COLOURFUL KING TT Z Purton · D Eustace 4 1.5 N
3 1 INVINCIBLE SAGE CP J Orman · D J Hall 3 29.0 1-3/4
4 5 DROMBEG BANNER K C Leung · P C Ng 1 14.0 2
5 4 MAGIC CONTROL TT B Avdulla · W K Mo 7 5.0 3-1/2
6 7 YOUTHFUL SPIRITS H/SR/TT Y L Chung · M Newnham 6 24.0 5-3/4
7 6 SUPERB CAPITALIST TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 5 48.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STELLAR EXPRESS2. COLOURFUL KING+0.05L3. INVINCIBLE SAGE+1.75L4. DROMBEG BANNER+2L5. MAGIC CONTROL+3.5L6. YOUTHFUL SPIRITS+5.75L7. SUPERB CAPITALIST+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick COLOURFUL KING (44.2%) finished 2nd — the winner STELLAR EXPRESS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 COLOURFUL KING 44.2% 2.26 2
2 3 STELLAR EXPRESS 25.2% 3.97 1
3 5 DROMBEG BANNER 9.7% 10.32 4
4 4 MAGIC CONTROL 6.7% 14.83 5
5 7 YOUTHFUL SPIRITS 6.4% 15.61 6
6 6 SUPERB CAPITALIST 4.3% 23.45 7
7 1 INVINCIBLE SAGE 3.6% 28.02 3
COLOURFUL KINGSTELLAR EXPRESS — wonDROMBEG BANNERMAGIC CONTROLYOUTHFUL SPIRITSSUPERB CAPITALISTINVINCIBLE SAGE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 48.5

PLACE

1 34

2 10.1

3 13.5

QUINELLA

2,3 43

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 46.5

1,3 89.5

2,3 20.5

FORECAST

3,2 86

TIERCE

3,2,1 349

TRIO

1,2,3 81

FIRST 4

1,2,3,5 102

QUARTET

3,2,1,5 1,176

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

11/2 12

11/3 191.5