Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2026-02-22 · 05:00

DAFFODIL HANDICAP

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 1 ("DAFFODIL HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-02-22 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. ALMIGHTY LIGHTNING, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K L Man, won, with RUN RUN SUNRISE second and FUN ELITE third. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.

Track detail & race-day changes (3)
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 #2 DRAGON HALL — Code 96 #2 DRAGON HALL — Jockey Change #2 DRAGON HALL — Weight Change

Result

Official · 0:55.74
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 ALMIGHTY LIGHTNING TT1 0:55.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K L Man 4 3.0
2 9 RUN RUN SUNRISE E1/TT1 K C Leung · F C Lor 12 23.0 2
3 3 FUN ELITE TT C L Chau · C W Chang 13 14.0 3-1/2
4 1 MASTER LUCKY D B McMonagle · J Size 8 9.7 4-1/4
5 11 LEADING DRAGON K Teetan · P C Ng 11 18.0 5-1/4
6 2 DRAGON HALL M F Poon · D J Hall 6 54.0 5-1/4
7 7 JOY STAR H T Mo · C S Shum 7 27.0 5-1/4
8 10 SHANDONG SPIRIT TT1 J Orman · P F Yiu 3 37.0 6
9 12 ABSOLUTE LUCKY TT R Kingscote · M Newnham 14 85.0 6-1/2
10 4 SPICY SPEEDY TT1 M Chadwick · W Y So 9 25.0 6-3/4
11 6 HONEST WITNESS B1/TT L Ferraris · D A Hayes 10 7.1 8
12 8 JUMBO BLESSING TT H Bowman · C Fownes 1 4.1 8-1/2
13 13 CONSPIRATOR L Hewitson · B Crawford 5 11.0 8-1/2
14 14 TAI VICTORY B M L Yeung · K H Ting 2 127.0 8-3/4
0 ARGENTO OCEAN CP · D J Whyte
WV 2 PACKING PHOENIX TT H Bentley · K W Lui 6

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ALMIGHTY LIGHTNING2. RUN RUN SUNRISE+2L3. FUN ELITE+3.5L4. MASTER LUCKY+4.25L5. LEADING DRAGON+5.25L6. DRAGON HALL+5.25L7. JOY STAR+5.25L8. SHANDONG SPIRIT+6L9. ABSOLUTE LUCKY+6.5L10. SPICY SPEEDY+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick ALMIGHTY LIGHTNING (20.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 ALMIGHTY LIGHTNING 20.3% 4.91 1
2 1 MASTER LUCKY 16.7% 6.00 4
3 8 JUMBO BLESSING 13.7% 7.32 12
4 6 HONEST WITNESS 9.5% 10.50 11
5 3 FUN ELITE 6.2% 16.25 3
6 4 SPICY SPEEDY 6.0% 16.62 10
7 11 LEADING DRAGON 5.3% 18.84 5
8 13 CONSPIRATOR 4.9% 20.25 13
9 10 SHANDONG SPIRIT 4.1% 24.36 8
10 2 DRAGON HALL 3.5% 28.93 6
11 7 JOY STAR 3.2% 31.15 7
12 9 RUN RUN SUNRISE 2.5% 40.31 2
13 14 TAI VICTORY 2.2% 46.19 14
14 12 ABSOLUTE LUCKY 2.0% 50.62 9
ALMIGHTY LIGHTNING — wonMASTER LUCKYJUMBO BLESSINGHONEST WITNESSFUN ELITESPICY SPEEDYLEADING DRAGONCONSPIRATORSHANDONG SPIRITDRAGON HALLJOY STARRUN RUN SUNRISETAI VICTORYABSOLUTE LUCKY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 30

PLACE

3 37.5

5 16

9 65.5

QUINELLA

5,9 428

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 93.5

3,9 425

5,9 152.5

FORECAST

5,9 684

TIERCE

5,9,3 6,947

TRIO

3,5,9 1,715

FIRST 4

1,3,5,9 3,039

QUARTET

5,9,3,1 60,359